Last week: 4-5 (-5 units)
Overall: 30-40-2 (-17 units)
Clearly we're still struggling this year. I still believe in this system, and I know we're going to turn it around - starting this week.
4 unit picks
denver (-4) over CINCINNATI
Peyton Manning is rolling, and the Bengals are a flawed team - particularly at the quarterback position. I could see Cincinnati hanging in this game, but only from the lack of strength on Denver's defense.
JACKSONVILLE (+6) over detroit
Jacksonville wins this game. Detroit is a seriously flawed team, and Jacksonville is just beginning to put things together. Take the points and be happy with the gift you've received from Vegas.
miami (-2) over INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts are a nice story. Their coach has cancer, they have a rookie quarterback, and they've won some games. They still stink. Miami is a team that's built with strong lines, and they'll expose the Colts. Easy cover here.
3 unit picks
arizona (+10) over GREEN BAY
The Packers appears to be putting things together. Don't believe the hype. Arizona is clearly a struggling team, but they should be able to harass Aaron Rodgers and cover this line.
HOUSTON (-10.5) over buffalo
The bad days are still coming for Houston, but they're running into the right team this week. They'll blow them out before beginning their free fall before the end of the year.
SEATTLE (-4.5) over minnesota
The Vikings were also a nice story to start the year - but these frauds are eventually exposed. And that was the case with the Vikings. Seattle isn't great, but they'll win this one easily.
2 unit picks
pittsburgh (+3) over NY GIANTS
Normally, the Steelers have been beaten by the Giants, thanks to the pass rush harassing Ben Roethlisberger. Now that the Steelers have installed a short passing game, I think it plays exactly into the weakness of this team. Take the Steelers and the points here.
ATLANTA (-3.5) over dallas
The public think the Falcons are due for a loss - I'm not buying it. Dallas should be a 7-10 point underdog in this game. I love that the public moves this line.
tampa bay (+2) over OAKLAND
Tampa is a team with a strong foundation - I still don't believe in Josh Freeman over the long haul, but I believe in him a heck of a lot more than Carson Palmer. Take the points and run here.