Fantasy Sports

Exhibition ammunition

Don’t overreact to anything in the preseason. Too many fantasy owners get in this nasty habit of trying to jump at anything that happens in the most useless of times.

I’ve gone to training camp practices and covered preseason games - and they’re boring. Yes, the most absolute of trained eyes can see some things. But few can actually separate the meaningful from the meaningless.

NFL writers are looking for anything that makes a good story. That doesn’t mean they’re crooked and evil; creating the news instead of covering it. It just means they’re human. Training camps have simply become way too scrutinized, with writers actually counting things like interceptions and sacks.

Soon enough we’ll have fantasy leagues just for training camp and the preseason. If Steve Spurrier ever gets back into the NFL, I’m totally taking his players in round one of my preseason league.

So again, don’t overreact to preseason news. In fact, I say go the opposite way. Take advantage of the geeks in your league. And yes, I see the silliness of a fantasy football writer calling anyone a geek. What I mean are the owners who follow every beat writer on twitter, reload PFT every five minutes and send out 800 trade offers anytime there’s the smallest nugget of news.

These owners try to outfox the opposition by being timely with news. They’re always the first to the waiver wire anytime an injury happens. But these owners can hurt themselves by overdoing it. They just let the pendulum swing a little too far, and get too high (or too low) on a player simply based on the news blurbs that come out.

I love to make offers to these guys based on what news happens. If one of their players has a small injury or a bad performance - they get too low. Same with one of your guys if they have a huge game.. I sold Glen Coffee last preseason in a dynasty league after he blew up. Obviously that worked out pretty well.

So again, go after the newshounds. They’re out there in every league, ready to make a move at a moment’s notice.

A few preseason observations:

I want nothing to do with the Houston running game. Ben Tate is tempting, but I have little doubt we’ll see plenty of Arian Foster, Tate and Steve Slaton all year long. Houston’s passing game is their bread and butter. Let somebody else try to guess who the heck the Texans will go with.

There’s an embarrassment of riches at QB2 this year. Ben Roethlisberger and Brett Favre are my favorite gambles who you can grab from rounds 7-10, but there are a ton of guys who will be out there. I’ve always been a fan of waiting at QB, but you can really do it this year.

Is the “hot hand” theory starting to catch on at running back? I mentioned Houston earlier, but it sure looks like Tampa Bay, New England and New Orleans are headed to that route. It’s not running back by committee, but just running the guy who is having a good day. And that’s terrible news for fantasy owners because of the inconsistency they’ll see at the position.

Speaking of Tampa Bay, I’m thinking Josh Freeman could take “the leap” this year. The leap could be a column by itself one day, but it’s someone who is ready to become a big star. Aaron Rodgers did it last year. I don’t believe so much in any of the Bucs wide receivers, but I like what I see in a few things, particularly that Minnesota and Green Bay are revamping their secondaries.

I don’t remember an NFL season where QB situations were so set in stone this early. I don’t know of a single team with controversy at its position. Maybe the Rams will pretend that A.J. Feeley will get a look this year, but I just don’t see any team without an established guy. Even Jake Delhomme seems like a lock to start in Cleveland.

I can’t make up my mind on Beanie Wells. Every time I think he’s going to blow up, I fear that Tim Hightower is going to end up as the starter for another season. I do like that Wells has fought through some injuries in camp this year, but I do think he’ll always have injury issues.

Speaking of Wells, I wonder why no one ever compares him to Jonathan Stewart? Both have unreal size/speed abilities, and both have had trouble staying on the field. Of the two, I like Beanie’s upside a little better for 2010 because of DeAngelo Williams.

I’m coming down on Jermichael Finley. It has absolutely nothing to do with his character, and everything to do with the stats. I’ll see your 38-416-4 (Finley’s stats in the last 7 games of the year), and I’ll raise you Vernon Davis’ 33-472-6 (Davis’ numbers over the same stretch). I still like Finley, I still think he’s a top five tight end - but I think Davis is better. Yet Finley is going higher according to most ADP data. Don’t take this out of context but - give me VD!

I love Marcedes Lewis as a genuine deep sleeper at TE. Zach Miller (the Jacksonville version) gets all the love from fantasy owners, but I think Lewis is ready to have a top 10 season. Miller and Mike Sims-Walker are both players in Jacksonville that will go way too high in your league.

Much like Houston’s RB situation, I’m worried about a few situations at WR. I especially think about New England here. Who knows about Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Torry Holt and Taylor Price from week to week. The combination of these guys shouldn’t have Randy Moss owners too scared, but I just don’t want to try to decipher who the heck Bill Belichick is going to put in the gameplan from week to week.

Bernard Scott and Toby Gerhart are my favorite sleeper running backs this year. Even without a significant injury to Cedric Benson or Adrian Peterson, I could see either being a reliable flex option. Both have talent, and I always draft for talent over situation.

The Ten Commandments of Fantasy Drafts

Sunday was “the day” for me. Not only was it the last weekend without a football game, but it was the one draft I care about more than any other.

I’ve done fantasy leagues on every level you can think of: auction, big money, expert, dynasty, etc. But nothing will ever top my oldest league. I won’t bore you too many details, but it’s a group of 12 friends (mostly from high school), and we’re now on year 15.

No one cares who I drafted, or how I feel about my team, but it has shown me ways to have the best draft experience. I hope you can incorporate these ten commandments into your league.

Get everyone there in person
It’s hard to organize schedules for 12 people. But if your league is important enough, there has to be a day where everyone can get together for your draft. I’m not saying it’s more important than jobs or kids, but in-person drafts are so much better than the online version. Just the camaraderie of everyone getting together is great. It’s like a high-school reunion, except you only see the people you like.


Get a trophy
I don’t care how cheap or ugly the trophy is, buy one. Even if there’s no money in your league (which I’ll detail later), it’s worth it to have a pride factor for the champion. It doesn’t have to be as good as the Stanley Cup, but it’s great to have what amounts to a league historical artifact. Your co-workers and girlfriends might make fun of you for having it displayed at your cubicle, mantel or coffee table, but it shouldn’t matter.

Put a little money in the pot
Depending on how well everyone in the league does financially, I highly recommend throwing a few bucks in there. It keeps everyone a little more attentive and makes it a little tougher for those who aren’t as active. If you have passion for your friends and for football, it’s absolutely worth throwing $20 in the pot. Just be sure you are clear about money and payouts - you don’t want friendships to be strained if there’s a conflict.

Establish a humiliating penalty for the last place team
One of the crappiest parts of fantasy leagues are owners who stop paying attention once they’ve started 0-4. In my league, the loser of the bad playoffs is drink bitch for the next year’s draft. Every three rounds, we stop the draft and the loser has to take orders. It actually makes the loser’s bracket more exciting than the winner’s bracket. Because nobody wants to be drink bitch.


Spring for some amenities
It’s pretty easy to find draft boards online; they range from $20-$40, depending on how many options you want. That way, there’s no question as to whether someone can take back a pick. Once the sticker is on the board, it’s done.

It’s also a good idea to spend a little cash on the league site. While places like ESPN, Yahoo and Sportsline have their free versions, it’s worth the money to find a great place to host your league (I highly recommend myfantasyleague.com.) While the cheapskates might complain about the cost, it’s totally worth it to be able to customize things like league schedules, scoring, player positions, etc. The league entry fee, draft board and site should total about $40 per person. Not too much to ask for a league people care about.

The draft is the priority
When the draft date is set, make sure everyone clears their entire day. The last thing you want is people to be in a rush because they have somewhere to be. It just ruins the whole day. That person ends up nagging people to rush their picks and is generally a killjoy for everyone. Either that, or he just leaves early and messes with everyone else’s draft. It’s not easy, but lock in your draft date as early as you can and make it clear: the draft is the priority for that one day.


Cell phones off
This is actually for a couple of reasons:
1. You want to embargo any injury information that happens, particularly if you are drafting while training camp is going on. All bets are off once waivers open, but it could ruin the draft if Peyton Manning blows out his knee, and only one owner knows about it.
2. Nobody wants to deal with wives and girlfriends calling about various stuff. Everyone can deal with being away the rest of their life for a few hours.

Have a dinner afterwards
Assuming everyone clears their schedule, there’s something really cool about everybody getting together for a nice meal. It doesn’t have to be a $100/plate steakhouse, but it’s something that you’ll remember as much as the draft itself. Sit down, have a glass of wine and talk about the fun you’ve all had.

Take some pictures
Don’t go over the top, but it’s cool to have some nice memories of your day. Get a group picture, along with a few action shots of what’s happened during the draft itself. Have the champion hoist the trophy, and command the league loser to make him a drink. A few years down the line, you’ll value these pics a hell of a lot more than your trip to the Grand Canyon.

Don’t forget, it’s about fun
More than anything, don’t let the details bring anyone down. It’s more about everyone spending time together than it will ever be about the teams or the money. Ball busting about picks is great, but there’s a limit. Something is wrong if you aren’t laughing a hell of a lot more than you do on a normal day.

These leagues are more about friendship and camaraderie than they will ever be about winning. If you remember these rules, I know your draft will be the best day of the year for you just like it is for me.

ADP Ripoffs

Draft season is right around the corner, and I’ve noticed that certain players become trendy picks for whatever reason. If you’re a smart MPTY reader, you know that I’m all about BPA. You win leagues by grabbing value in every round.

So while some of these players might still have a good season, I don’t think they’re worth nearly what you’re going to have to pay in order to get them. And at the end of the piece, I’ll name my 2010 Overvalued Player of the Year.

Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers, GB (ADP: 11.63, QB1)
I like Rodgers, and I love Green Bay’s offense, but I would rarely take a QB in round one, and if I did, it absolutely wouldn’t be him. Much was made about Green Bay’s offensive line last year, but Rodgers took too many hits himself. It’s only a matter of time until those hits result in missed games. Let someone else grab a QB in round one, and stick to RBs and WRs. Again, he just isn’t worth a first-round pick in my book.

Jay Cutler, CHI (ADP: 68.59, QB8)
This is the same Jay Cutler who threw 26 INTs last season, right? Just because Mike Martz took over the Chicago offense doesn’t mean Cutler is going to turn into Kurt Warner circa 1999. Cutler is the same guy he was last season, which means he’s going to make a lot of mistakes, get sacked a ton of times and look brilliant for a game or two. I certainly can’t recommend taking him as your first quarterback, and especially can’t suggest doing so before round eight at the very least.

Joe Flacco, BAL (ADP: 82.21, QB11)
Flacco is a sexy pick this season. Baltimore added Anquan Boldin and he looked great down the stretch. But I just don’t see him as QB1 material. After the big seven at QB (Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Brady, Schaub and Romo), you’d be better off waiting a few rounds and grabbing two or three guys without the pedigree.

Matthew Stafford, DET (ADP: 108.49, QB15)
I don’t understand this one at all. Yes, Stafford has Calvin Johnson. But he’s young, and was pretty miserable last season. If you take away the Cleveland game, here are his stats: 175 for 334 (52.4%),1845 yards, 8 TDs, 18 INTs. That’s a QB rating of 54. JaMarcus Russell had a rating of 50. While Stafford has some upside, I certainly don’t see him as a mid-round pick and I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my backup QB.

Running Back
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT (ADP: 16.12, RB8)
Rotoworld writer Chris Wesseling and I have had some nice arguments on this one. I don’t see Mendenhall as much of a fantasy threat, particularly in Pittsburgh’s offense. The Steelers are a pass-first team and they throw at the goalline (28 passing TDs, 10 rushing TDs in 2009.) I’m not saying Mendenhall can’t be a viable back, but I don’t see him as a 300 carry, 12 TD type of back. Take it from me - avoid him unless you are getting him in round three.

Ryan Matthews, SD (ADP: 26.63, RB11)
Just because Matthews went to the Chargers doesn’t mean he’s going to remind anyone of LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003. San Diego’s offensive line was ineffective running the ball with any back last season and I think we’ll see more of the same in 2010. I can see Matthews as a good player if the Chargers successfully rebuild their offensive line, but that’s not going to happen this season.

Shonn Greene, NYJ (ADP: 26.97, RB12)
I expect a war on this one with my buddies Scott and Adam from Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio, but I just don’t buy into the hype with Greene. He can’t catch the ball, which is going to matter in the Jets offense, and I think Tomlinson is going to steal carries on the goalline. Much like Mendenhall, I just don’t see him as a top back.

Pierre Thomas, NO (ADP: 39.37, RB18)
I think Thomas has become a trendy pick from the hype backlash of Reggie Bush. I agree, Bush is terrible. He’ll never be the back everyone expected him to be. But Thomas is nothing special either. He’s never had 150 carries in a season, and I don’t think he’ll start topping 250 carries this season. There are simply much better values for your RB2 slot.

Jahvid Best, DET (ADP: 48.47, RB21)
The world doesn’t make sense to me when Best is being drafted ahead of guys like Felix Jones. Best has some serious explosiveness, but this position reeks of people trying to grab guys they think are starters. Best could have a great year in Detroit, but it’s an absolute reach to take in in round four or five. He’s a rookie, Detroit can’t run the ball and there are no guarantees he can stay healthy.

Marion Barber, DAL (ADP: 85.30, RB28)
Barber never will be anything more than a committee back. His numbers are quite steady when you look at them (975, 885 and 932 yards the last three years), but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. He’s gone from complimentary back, to “the guy”, to a serious question mark. In other words, don’t expect those similar numbers, because his competition is a lot stronger this season.

Wide Receiver
Randy Moss, NE (ADP: 22.64, WR8)
Moss grabbed headlines with his “I’ll play when I wanna play” attitude in the past. So naturally, everyone expects him to blow up this season, as he’s in a contract year. I just don’t see it. While his effort might have been questionable in the past, I simply am worried about his age and New England’s passing game. I’d prefer to take a guy like Greg Jennings or Marques Colston over Moss.

Anquan Boldin, BAL (ADP: 40.53, WR16)
Boldin’s injuries have always held him back, but I think Baltimore’s offense might hurt his numbers more than his injuries ever did. Of course, it certainly won’t help that Larry Fitzgerald isn’t gathering attention either. His ADP has him as a 3rd/4th round pick, and that’s too high with those question marks. Either Steve Smith would be a better option, as would Michael Crabtree and Chad Ochocinco.

Wes Welker, NE (ADP: 60.43, WR23)
Obviously this is a vote against Welker’s health. If he’s healthy, Welker is aboslutely a top 10 WR, particuarly in PPR leagues. But I doubt he’s going to be back at the start of the season, and I think New England’s passing offense could sputter without him. Someone is going to take him higher than my 6th/7th round recommendation and think they’ve gotten a steal. Time will only tell if the joke is on them or me.

Dez Bryant, DAL (ADP: 62.96, WR24)
Bryant came very close to being my most overvalued player. He’s not a WR2, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be even close to worth what’s he going to cost you to get him. Rookie receivers typically have a tough time adjusting to the pro game and I’m simply going to avoid the hype on this guy. You should too.

Mike Wallace, PIT (ADP: 76.19, WR28)
Wallace had a good rookie year, but he’s going to struggle as Pittsburgh’s top deep threat. Now that Santonio Holmes is gone, Wallace is going to see double teams, and I expect him to disappoint a lot of fantasy owners because of it.

Tight End
Tony Gonzalez, ATL (ADP: 78.59, TE7)
His yards per catch has dropped each of the last three years, which tells me Gonzo is losing speed at the ripe old age of 34. Atlanta should run the ball a lot more, and Gonzalez just isn’t much of a blocker. I think it’s a stretch to think he’ll catch 80 balls again, and his TD numbers are just OK. I’d much rather take a guy I know will be in the top five, or wait and take a sleeper.

Owen Daniels, HOU (ADP: 80.63, TE8)
Daniels was the top TE in fantasy football until he got hurt. The Texans have a plethora of tight ends, and a ton of targets at WR as well. Daniels could easily get lost in the shuffle, and is simply too much of a risk at this price.

Chris Cooley, WAS (ADP: 103.87, TE11)
Is Cooley even the best tight end on his own team? Fred Davis caught a ton of balls while Cooley was hurt, and Cooley had just 29 catches in his seven games (Davis had 48 in 15 games.) At this price, you are better off waiting on a sleeper like Jared Cook.

Brandon Pettigrew, DET (ADP: 190.32, TE21)
While the bottom of tight ends might be a crapshoot, Pettigrew has no value to me at all. I’d much rather grab his teammate Tony Scheffler (ADP: 192.23, TE22) at a similar spot because he is a much better pass-catching tight end.

Overvalued Player of the Year
Calvin Johnson, DET (ADP: 12.38, WR3)
I have no clue why everyone falls in love with Johnson every year. He’s a nice player, but he’s shown nothing that warrants a first-round pick. He’s this sexy pick that everyone falls in love with - but are fed up with once Detroit can’t get him the ball. He’s had just one 1,000 yard season, and he’s never been the dominant force everyone expected. If I’m taking a receiver with my first overall pick, he better have little to no question marks like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson.

ADP Bargains

As we continue towards draft season, the fuzzy images of value will shift into clearer images. Certain players already are on their way up and down the draft board. Here’s a look at a few guys I think are undervalued at this point.

Quarterback
Chad Henne, QB, MIA (ADP: 123.80, QB18)
Henne at 123 means he’ll go around round 10, which is in the bottom tier of QB2. With Brandon Marshall’s addition, Miami’s offense is going to have a lot more ammunition to throw at teams. He won’t be a 30 touchdown QB, but he’ll be in the bottom tier of QB1 by the end of the season.

David Garrard, QB, JAX (ADP: 175.24, QB26)
Garrard has thrown for 48 TDs in the last three seasons and ran for seven more. One of my favorite strategies is to wait on a QB and swipe two or three mid-level guys. Garrard is a perfect example of a guy to grab later in the draft to pair with a guy like Henne. He’s not a elite kind of passer, but he’s a better than average fantasy quarterback. It’s a lock he’ll end up better than 26th at QB.

Running Back
Steven Jackson, RB, STL (ADP: 12.12, RB6)
People simply are afraid to grab running backs off of losing teams. But let’s not forget Chris Johnson was still plenty productive as the Titans fell to 0-6 to start last season. Jackson should be going somewhere from fifth to eighth in your draft, but appears to be dropping to the end of round one. If you can swipe him up that late, you’re getting a steal.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL (ADP: 17.17, RB8)
If Jackson is a steal around 12th, then Turner is larceny in the middle of round two, particularly in non-PPR leagues. He’s a threat for 1400 yards and 15 TDs even if he doesn’t catch the ball a ton. He should rise as drafting season continues, as he has no business going after guys like Miles Austin and Rashard Mendenhall.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC (ADP: 26.39, RB10)
Charles is bunched around guys like Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews, but I think he’s head and shoulders above those guys. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season (which should go down), but his carries will be way up. Even if Thomas Jones starts stealing goalline touches, he’ll still be very productive.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ (ADP: 128.33, RB43)
I chronicled my case for Tomlinson as RB2 in this article, and my opinion hasn’t changed. So when I see LT available in round 10? I just laugh. He should be going around the fifth round in PPR leagues, and no lower than the seventh round in standard leagues.

Chester Taylor, RB, CHI (ADP: 135.52, RB47)
Chicago didn’t give Chester Taylor 4 years and 12M to sit on the bench. Matt Forte averaged an anemic 3.6 yards per carry last year, and Taylor should at least split carries with him. Yet Forte is RB20, and Taylor is going seven rounds later on average. Chicago’s run game isn’t great, but Taylor should be more valuable than round eleven.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, BUF (ADP: 143.48, RB48)
Remember, I draft for talent, not for situation. Lynch seems to have digged himself a hole in Buffalo, but it’s nothing he can’t crawl out from under. He’s been productive when he’s had the ball, and who knows what could happen in terms of trades. If Adrian Peterson blows out his knee, you don’t think Minnesota will make a call to Buffalo? He’s obviously a gamble, but he’s a guy I wouldn’t mind storing on the end of my bench.

Wide Receiver
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC (ADP: 59.22, WR22)
Bowe had 47 catches last season despite starting just nine games. Assuming he doesn’t get pinged with another suspension, he’ll likely approach his 2008 numbers (86-1,022-7), which would make him one heck of a bargain in the fifth or sixth round. I think he’ll be a high-end WR2 by the end of the season.

Hines Ward, WR, PIT (ADP: 77.22, WR28)
I see nothing but blue skies for Ward, while most seem to forecast a downfall in his production. Yes, he’s 34, but plenty of wide receivers are productive into their late thirties. He’s never been a burner, which is why he’ll continue to catch a lot of balls in Pittsburgh. Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension, Pittsburgh is still a passing team much to the chagrin of many well-meaning Rashard Mendenhall owners. Ward might not repeat his performance of 95-1,167-6, but I doubt he’ll dip below 80 catches and 1,000 yards. That means getting Ward around pick 70 would be great value.

Dexter McCluster, WR, KC (ADP: 143.93, WR50)
McCluster could easily be Kansas City’s version of Wes Welker. He’s undersized, but quick as hell. While Bowe will be the primary wide receiver, McCluster should pick up a lot of dump-offs and catches. He’ll be a steal if he lasts until his ADP of round 12, and could be a legitimate favorite for rookie of the year.

Chaz Schilens, WR, OAK (ADP: 156.22, WR56)
Schilens missed the first half of 2009 with an injury, but it’s nothing but good news for fantasy owners. It means you can grab him as a WR4/5, if not just pick him up in free agency. He had just five fewer catches than Oakland’s top WR did in an entire season. Now with a real QB, Schilens has a chance to blow up in 2009. Grab him 2-3 rounds earlier than his ADP (around round 10) and you’ll thank me later.

James Jones, WR, GB (ADP: 197.23, WR69)
Jones and Jordy Nelson both have a great opprtunity to supplant Donald Driver this year. I just prefer Jones because his numbers have been better. He’s a deep sleeper, but somebody to look out for this season.

Tight End
Zach Miller, TE, OAK (ADP: 89.68, TE10)
Miller will benefit from a legitimate QB just like Schilens. He had 66 catches last season in that ridiculous offense, and should only see those numbers jump. I think he’ll make the move to a top tier TE like Jermichael Finley, Vernon Davis and Brent Celek did in 2009.

Jared Cook, TE, TEN (ADP: 196.48, TE23)
I don’t like that the Titans re-signed Bo Scaife, but I always draft for talent over situation. Cook is that talented, and I think he’ll put it together this season. I rarely draft a second tight end, but I think I’ll have Cook stashed on a lot of my teams this season.

Stay tuned to MPTY for continued fantasy updates, including my list of ADP busts.

PPR Redraft Rankings - updated 07-01-10

Quarterback

Tier 1
1. Peyton Manning, IND
2. Drew Brees, NO
3. Aaron Rodgers, GB

Manning gets the nod over Brees and Rodgers because of his non-existent injury risk. He's never missed a game. Brees is right there with him, but I prefer Manning personally. Rodgers might be better than the both of them from a fantasy standpoint, but he takes too many hits. Eventually he's going to start missing games if he doesn't get the ball out a little earlier.

Tier 2
4. Matt Schaub, HOU
5. Tom Brady, NE
6. Philip Rivers, SD

I'd feel comfortable with any of these three at QB, just not as good as I'd feel with the top three. There's very little risk with any of them, though the questions about Vincent Jackson hurt Rivers.

Tier 3
7. Tony Romo, DAL
8. Eli Manning, NYG
9. Kevin Kolb, PHI
10. Joe Flacco, BAL
11. Chad Henne, MIA
12. Matt Ryan, ATL
13. Brett Favre, MIN

This is the "you better get one of them" tiers. There's value to be had, as guys will fall. But if there's one specific guy in this last that you want, be prepared to spend a fourth-round pick on whoever it is you've fallen for. Buyer beware on Favre.

Tier 4
14. Donovan McNabb, PHI
15. Jay Cutler, CHI
16. David Garrard, JAX
17. Carson Palmer, CIN
18. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

The bargain bin. These guys come with various risks. Obviously you aren't getting a full season of Ben Roethlisberger, but he's a nice option for the fantasy playoffs if you can find a suitable starter for the first month of the season. This might seem low for McNabb, but I'm worried about him in the first season of a new team with a new system. The eulogies for Carson Palmer's arm are a little early for this point in his career.

Tier 5
19. Alex Smith, SF
20. Vince Young, TEN
21. Jason Campbell, OAK

This is the "now you're stretching it" part of the draft. These are questionable QB2 type of players, if you feel strongly about having a backup QB. It's going to get real sketchy if you don't have a guy by this point. Smith caught the biggest break in the draft when San Francisco passed on QBs to take offensive linemen. He could be dangerously low on this list.

Tier 6
22. Matthew Stafford, DET
23. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
24. Matt Leinart, ARI
25. Matt Cassel, KC
26. Josh Freeman, TB
27. Mark Sanchez, NYJ

Rather than roster a player like any of these guys, I'd rather just roll with one QB and use the wire when I need a guy on a bye. Obviously it all depends on the depth of your league, but I wouldn't feel comfortable starting anyone in tier six. This might seem low for Mark Sanchez, but I'm worried the honeymoon could wear off quickly if he keeps throwing INTs.

Tier 7
28. Matt Moore, CAR
29. Sam Bradford, STL
30. Kyle Orton, DEN
31. Trent Edwards, BUF
32. Jake Delhomme, CLE

Desperation. These guys are hardly worth rostering in dynasty leagues, because most won't have a job after this year (obviously with the exception of Bradford).

Tier 8
33. Byron Leftwich, PIT
34. Jimmy Clausen, CAR
35. Tim Tebow, DEN
36. Charlie Whitehurst, SEA
37. A.J. Feeley, STL

Leftwich has some potential - there's a possibility Roethlisberger could screw up again. Obviously he's a nice handcuff to swipe in a late round if you've taken Big Ben earlier.

Running Back

Tier 1
1. Chris Johnson, TEN
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
3. Ray Rice, BAL

In PPR leagues, these three are the holy trinity. There's no way your top three picks shouldn't be these three guys. Johnson might be in his own tier, but I'm a little worried about mileage after last season's workload. The catches are so important in PPR leagues.

Tier 2
4. Adrian Peterson, MIN
5. Frank Gore, SF
6. Steven Jackson, STL
7. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
8. Michael Turner, ATL

If Adrian Peterson could ever learn to catch (and hold onto) the ball, he might be the top back in the league. But until that point, he's not as valuable as you might think in a PPR league. After Turner, there's a heck of a drop off into backs who aren't their team's lone ball carrier. These are the end of the guys I'd feel comfortable owning as a RB1.

Tier 3
9. Jamaal Charles, KC
10. Knowshon Moreno, DEN
11. Chris Wells, ARI
12. Felix Jones, DAL
13. Ryan Grant, GB
14. Ronnie Brown, MIA
15. Joseph Addai, IND

All of these guys have question marks, but still have a high ceiling. Grant, Addai and Brown all are pretty safe here and are the ideal RB2 type of pick. Felix Jones has a lot more value in non-ppr leagues.

Tier 4
16. LeSean McCoy, PHI
17. Jonathan Stewart, CAR
18. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
19. Darren McFadden, OAK
20. C.J. Spiller, BUF

Putting Rashard Mendenhall in tier four is my way of saying I don't want him. He's not going to last that long. He just doesn't catch a lot of passes, and doesn't score a lot of TDs. His yards per carry are inflated because of how much Pittsburgh passes, and he's just going to be that 1,000 yard, 10 TD type of back, no higher. I love LeSean McCoy's ceiling this year. There's a reason the Eagles didn't spend a high pick on a back.

Tier 5
21. LaDanian Tomlinson, NYJ
22. Chester Taylor, CHI
23. Ryan Matthews, SD
24. Shonn Greene, NYJ
25. Pierre Thomas, NO
26. Ricky Williams, MIA
27. Matt Forte, CHI
28. Cedric Benson, CIN

All of these backs have serious competition, or serious question marks. I love LT's chance for a nice little rebound this year, particularly with looks around the goal line. San Diego's offensive line was atrocious last year, and that's a big reason why Ryan Matthews is lower than on most lists. He simply doesn't catch the ball enough to do a lot of damage in PPR leagues.

Tier 6
29. Tim Hightower, ARI
30. Marion Barber, DAL
31. Clinton Portis, WAS
32. Jahvid Best, DET
33. Ben Tate, HOU
34. Darren Sproles, SD

Hightower in particular is a safe pick. He's a guy you can grab late, and get decent production for a RB4/5. The Beanie Wells owner will think you'd swiping his handcuff, you're more looking for a bye week filler who will put up steady numbers. Portis could have nice value in non-ppr leagues, as too many owners simply give up on him. In PPR, he just isn't anything more than a RB3/4 who will cost a lot more than a guy like Hightower. Ben Tate is this high because he has a nice ceiling.

Tier 7
35. Justin Forsett, SEA
36. Thomas Jones, KC
37. Donald Brown, IND
38. Michael Bush, OAK
39. Steve Slaton, HOU
40. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
41. Willis McGahee, BAL
42. Jerious Norwood, ATL
43. Reggie Bush, NO

I like the value with all of these guys. This might seem low for Reggie Bush, but his numbers aren't all that different from the guys in this tier like Forsett, Slaton and Norwood. They'll catch the ball, but they likely won't ever be full-time starters. Forsett has some nice upside, as he was routinely getting 5-6 catches last year in Seattle on dump offs.

Tier 8
44. Montario Hardesty, CLE
45. Fred Taylor, NE
46. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
47. Jerome Harrison, CLE
48. Leon Washington, SEA
49. Laurence Maroney, NE
50. Cadillac Williams, TB

Tier 8 is full of black holes for PPR leagues; guys who just won't ever catch the ball. Taylor, Jacobs and Maroney all are in that category. Taylor probably has the highest upside of all of these guys if he becomes "the guy" in New England.

Tier 9
51. Javon Ringer, TEN
52. Fred Jackson, BUF
53. Toby Gerhart, MIN
54. Larry Johnson, WAS
55. Kevin Smith, DET
56. James Davis, CLE

These are the last guys I'd consider owning for most leagues. I don't want to waste a lot of roster space, and all of these guys could potentially rush for 1,000 yards if the right injury happened. Gerhart in particular could have some nice value - I might reach to grab him in a few leagues, especially if I owned Peterson.

Wide Receiver

Tier 1
1. Andre Johnson, HOU
2. Reggie Wayne, IND
3. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
4. Roddy White, ATL
5. Brandon Marshall, MIA

These guys are all top of the class for a PPR league. If you want a wide receiver in rounds one or two, these are the only ones I can fully recommend in a PPR league. I wouldn't feel comfortable with any other guys as one of my top two players.

Tier 2
6. Marques Colston, NO
7. Steve Smith, CAR
8. Randy Moss, NE
9. Miles Austin, DAL
10. Calvin Johnson, DET
11. Greg Jennings, GB

Seems a little low for Randy Moss, right? Remember, it's a PPR league. The last two seasons he's had only 69 and 83 catches. His yards per catch has been steady, but I can't put him in tier one in a PPR league unless he's going to get 90 catches at least. I like Steve Smith's chances to rebound with Matt Moore at QB. Beware of Calvin Johnson. He gets drafted way too early because someone inevitably falls in love with him. He has great talent, but I don't know if he'll ever put up those huge numbers everyone expects.

Tier 3
12. Steve Smith, NYG
13. Chad Ochocinco, CIN
14. Anquan Boldin, BAL
15. Dwayne Bowe, KC
16. Michael Crabtree, SF
17. Sidney Rice, MIN
18. DeSean Jackson, PHI

There's a rather sizable drop-off after this tier for PPR leagues. I debated leaving DeSean Jackson off the list, but his upside is too high to leave him off. Crabtree will probably go too high in your league, so don't worry about it when someone takes him in round three. Bowe might seem a little high, but he gets a lot of looks in that offense. His suspension hurt him last year, but I think he's still a decent WR2.

Tier 4
19. Hines Ward, PIT
20. Donald Driver, GB
21. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
22. Vincent Jackson, SD
23. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
24. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX
25. Percy Harvin, MIN
26. Santana Moss, WAS
27. Jeremy Maclin, PHI

Tier four is a combination of gray-beards like Ward, Driver and Moss along with a bunch of second-year guys. Buyer beware on Harvin with his history of injury, migraines and drugs. I'm avoiding him if I can, but I'll take him if the value is right. It's all about risk management. Besides Harvin, these picks are pretty safe. It's hard to imagine any of these guys being anything worse than a WR3, unless Vincent Jackson goes crazy with a holdout.

Tier 5
28. Robert Meachem, NO
29. Dez Bryant, DAL
30. Derrick Mason, BAL
31. Devin Hester, CHI
32. Davone Bess, MIA
33. Mike Walllace, PIT
34. Kenny Britt, TEN
35. Eddie Royal, DAL
36. Donnie Avery, STL

I don't know if Mason can put up the numbers for another year. Consider this ranking a warning. Royal and Bess are two of my favorite PPR prospects. Royal was highly disappointing last year, but someone has to step up with Brandon Marshall out, right? Bess is next to Marshall now, and should live on single coverage and slot responsibilities.

Tier 6
37. Lee Evans, BUF
38. Jericho Cotchery, NYJ
39. Wes Welker, NE
40. Chaz Schilens, OAK
41. Devin Aromashodu, CHI
42. Devin Thomas, WAS
43. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
44. Steve Breaston, ARI

This is the spot where value gets really shaky. Holmes is a nice risk, especially for the playoffs. Same with Welker. Strange to have three receivers from one team within 12 picks, but the Jets qualify. I just don't feel very good any prospect in this range.

Tier 7
45. Pierre Garcon, IND
46. Jabar Gaffney, DEN
47. Antonio Bryant, CIN
48. Terrell Owens, FA
49. Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE
50. Braylon Edwards, NYJ
51. Nate Burleson, DET
52. Dexter McCluster, KC
53. Mike Thomas, JAX
54. Anthony Gonzalez, IND

To me, all of these guys are late-round flyers. If you are taking a player in this range and you expect him to fill anything more than the bye-week filler, you are destined to be disappointed. Draft any of these guys at your own risk.

Tier 8
55. Chris Chambers, KC
56. Austin Collie, IND
57. Mario Manningham, NYG
58. Malcolm Floyd, SD
59. Josh Morgan, SF
60. Demaryius Thomas, DEN
61. Malcolm Kelly, WAS
62. Golden Tate, SEA
63. Kevin Walter, HOU
64. Johnny Knox, CHI
65. Louis Murphy, OAK
66. Laurent Robinson, STL
67. Early Doucet, ARI
68. Jacoby Jones, HOU
69. Arrelious Benn, TB
70. Lance Moore, NO
71. Brandon LaFell, CAR
72. Troy Williamson, JAX
73. Steve Johnson, BUF
74. Julian Edelman, NE
75. Earl Bennett, CHI
76. Bernard Berrian, MIN
77. Devery Henderson, NO

The leftovers. All of these guys are waiver-wire fodder for redrafts. Don't waste your time unless something big happens. Any of these guys have the potential to put up WR3 type of numbers, and that's why they're on the list. But you shouldn't need to draft them in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Tight End

Tier 1
1. Dallas Clark, IND
2. Jermichael Finley, GB
3. Antonio Gates, SD
4. Vernon Davis, SF

I'm firmly on the Finley bandwagon. He's going to be this pricey come draft day, but he's as good as any of these guys. I expect all of the first tier to approach 1,000 yards and 10 TDs.

Tier 2
5. Owen Daniels, HOU
6. Brent Celek, PHI
7. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
8. Jason Witten, DAL
9. Zach Miller, OAK
10. Kellen Winslow, TB

The low rating of Gonzo and Witten essentially means I don't think you should draft either of them. Witten's numbers should drop with all the pass-catchers around him, while Gonzalez is getting up there in age, as is clearly not Matt Ryan's #1 target. Miller has some great upside with a real QB in Oakland, and Daniels would be in tier one if it weren't for injury questions.

Tier 3
11. Heath Miller, PIT
12. Chris Cooley, WAS
13. John Carlson, SEA
14. Vinsanthe Shiancoe, MIN
15. Kevin Boss, NYG

Personally, this is the absolute end of the list that I'd draft any tight end. If I'm not getting one of top guys, I'll just wait until a later round for one of these guys. And if you leaguemates are going to waste mid-round picks on these guys? Then I'd just wait and play the waiver wire.

Tier 4
16. Dustin Keller, NYJ
17. Greg Olsen, CHI
18. Bo Scaife, TEN
19. Fred Davis, WAS
20. Jeremy Shockey, NO
21. Anthony Fasano, MIA
22. Ben Watson, CLE
23. Jermaine Gresham, CIN
24. Marcedes Lewis, JAX
25. Jared Cook, TEN
26. Tony Scheffler, DET

None of these guys are really worth a pick. In deeper leagues they have some value, but I'm not going to spend a pick on one of them unless it's absolutely necessary. I sincerely doubt any of these guys will come anywhere near the top ten. Keep an eye on Marcedes Lewis. If Jacksonville starts throwing more to the tight end, he could have some value, just because he's on the field so much as a blocker. Davis could vault into the top ten if the Redskins jettison Chris Cooley.

Tier 5
27. Zach Miller, JAX
28. Aaron Hernandez, NE
29. Shawn Nelson, BUF
30. Todd Heap, BAL
31. Brandon Pettigrew, DET
32. Gary Barnidge, CAR
33. Daniel Graham, DEN
34. David Thomas, NO
35. Daniel Fells, STL
36. Tony Moeaki, KC

None of these guys are anything more than bye-week fillers and waiver-wire fodder. Miller, Hernandez and Nelson all have upside, which is why they're at the top of this list. The rest are hardly worth even mentioning.

Kicker

Tier 1
1. Garrett Hartley, NO
2. Nate Kaeding, SD
3. Ryan Longwell, MIN
4. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
5. Mason Crosby, GB
6. Rob Bironas, TEN
7. David Akers, PHI
8. David Buehler, DAL
9. Lawrence Tynes, NYG
10. Billy Cundiff, BAL
11. Matt Prater, DEN
12. Dan Carpenter, MIA
13. Josh Scobee, JAX
14. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK
15. Jay Feely, ARI
16. Olindo Mare, SEA
17. Joe Nedney, SF
18. John Kasay, CAR
19. Jeff Reed, PIT
20. Neil Rackers, HOU
21. Ryan Succop, KC
22. Mike Nugent, CIN
23. Jason Hanson, DET
24. Robbie Gould, CHI
25. Nick Folk, NYJ
26. Matt Bryant, ATL
27. Rian Lindell, BUF
28. Adam Vinatieri, IND
29. Graham Gano, WAS
30. Josh Brown, STL
31. Connor Barth, TB
32. Phil Dawson, CLE

Yes, that's right. All the kickers in one tier. Because they're kickers in fantasy football. That's the order I like it, but I'm literally going to take the one at the top of the list in the last round of my draft. Or in free agency.

The Case for LaDainian Tomlinson

For some reason, fantasy writers seem all too happy to put a fork in the back of LaDainian Tomlinson. Whether they are bitter from being burned last season, or if they are just too quick to dismiss a veteran player, they fail to realize that they’re simply writing this guy off too soon.

Now, make no mistake about it - the LT from 2006 is dead and gone. I believe strongly in Tomlinson’s chances for a rebirth in 2010, but I don’t see 28 touchdowns in his future. Heck, I think 14 is an optimistic number. But anyone counting out the veteran is making a mistake - and here’s why.

The Jets are the best possible fit for him.
You have to give LT and his agent credit, they found the best possible landing spot for him. The Jets have one of the best offensive lines in the business, and they love to run the ball (60.7% running plays last season.) Shonn Greene looked great in the playoffs, but has some serious question marks, particular in the passing game. He had one catch for four yards. Meanwhile, Tomlinson has great hands for a running back and has basically no competition for duties on third down.

San Diego was a terrible running team in 2009.
San Diego’s offensive line was atrocious last year, and they averaged 3.5 yards per carry as a team (worst in the league). Granted, Tomlinson’s 3.3 yards per carry was a big part of that. But Darren Sproles averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, and his numbers clearly are a little inflated from having duties on third down. Only Kris Dielman and Marcus McNeill played the entire season on the offensive line, and the Chargers even had to pull Jon Runyan out of retirement to log some snaps at right tackle. San Diego essentially gambled on its offensive line staying healthy, and failed. I doubt Chris Johnson could have averaged more than four yards per carry with the holes the Chargers were providing.

He still had 12 touchdowns last season!
That’s right, the old man was in the top 5 in rushing touchdowns last season. Even though San Diego couldn’t run the ball, they still fed him the rock at the goalline, and he delivered. And don’t you think the Jets will do the same thing? I suspect we’ll see Tomlinson in the game on third down, and in the red zone.

Again, I’m not projecting that the LT of 2007 will reappear and average five yards a carry. But I do think he’ll have enough carries, catches and TDs to make him a viable option as a RB2 in TD heavy leagues, and a RB2/RB3 in PPR leagues. He won’t be a monster in yardage leagues, but I do think he’s going to make those who doubt him look a little silly.

My projection:
Rushing: 210 carries, 880 yards, 11 TDs.
Receiving: 30 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs.

IDP Rankings - updated 6-30-10

It's early in the summer, but here are my IDP Rankings. Keep an eye out for more IDP stuff as the season comes along. Note: These rankings are for a standard IDP league where points are as follows: 1.5 points per tackle, .5 for an assist, 3 for a sack, interception, forced fumble or fumble recovery.

Defensive Line
1. Jared Allen, DE, MIN
2. Trent Cole, DE, PHI
3. Mario Williams, DE, HOU
4. Justin Tuck, DE, NYG
5. Julius Peppers, DE, CHI
6. Terrell Suggs, DE, BAL
7. Robert Mathis, DE, IND

The magnificent seven. These are the every down, high-scoring DEs that you want. 3-4 defenses have increased the value of the pure pass-rushing defensive lineman, so you want to be sure you get one of these seven guys on your team if you can. I would absolutely spend a pick on a DE before I did so with a defensive back.

8. Ray Edwards, DE, MIN
9. Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE, DET
10. Will Smith, DE, NO
11. Aaron Kampman, DE, JAX
12. Osi Umenyiora, DE, NYG
13. Stylez G. White, DE, TB
14. Cliff Avril, DE, DET

As you can see, there's quite a drop-off after those top seven. I still like this group of DEs, but all of these guys come with question marks. Keep an eye on Osi's situation in New York. I figure he'll still be a force, but if he isn't starting, I see no reason to bother with him.

15. Matthias Kiwanuka, DE, NYG
16. Darnell Dockett, DE, ARI
17. Alex Brown, DE, NO
18. Everette Brown, DE, CAR
19. William Hayes, DE, TEN
20. John Abraham, DE, ATL
21. Chris Long, DE, STL
22. Justin Smith, DE, SF

As we move into the third tier, we see the 3-4 guys start to creep in there. Guys like Dockett and Justin Smith are underrated, and in deep IDP leagues you have to find guys in 3-4 systems who can score. Almost half the league runs some sort of 3-4, so you can't just hold 4-3 DEs now.

23. Calais Campbell, DE, ARI
24. Dwight Freeney, DE, IND
25. Antwan Odom, DE, CIN
26. Derrick Harvey, DE, JAX
27. Brandon Graham, DE, PHI
28. Kevin Williams, DT, MIN
29. Richard Seymour, DE/DT, OAK
30. Lawrence Jackson, DE, SEA

In the fourth tier, the talent starts to really drop off. Don't fall into the Freeney trap, as he's not nearly as productive a fantasy player as he is on the field. We start to see DTs starting to make the list at this point, and Williams is clearly the best of the bunch.

31. Jonathan Babineaux, DT, ATL
32. Derrick Morgan, DE, TEN
33. Michael Johnson, DE/OLB, CIN
34. Mark Anderson, DE, CHI
35. Antonio Smith, DE, HOU
36. Kroy Biermann, DE, ATL
37. Charles Johnson, DE, CAR

Michael Johnson could be a steal, as he could end up taking some snaps at outside linebacker. If he does, and your league doesn't change his position, bump him up into the top 15. Also give Mark Anderson a bump in sack-heavy leagues.

38. Tony Brown, DT, TEN
39. Jay Ratliff, DT, DAL
40. Matt Shaugnessy, DE, OAK
41. Tim Crowder, DE, TB
42. Shaun Ellis, DE, NYJ
43. Nadmukong Suh, DT, DET
44. Jason Hunter, DE, DET
45. Darryl Tapp, DE, SEA
46. Tyler Brayton, DE, CAR
47. Jason Jones, DT, TEN
48. Sedrick Ellis, DT, NO
49. Gerald McCoy, DT, TB
50. Haloti Ngata, DT, BAL
51. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, NYG
52. Kelly Gregg, DT, BAL
53. Connor Barwin, DE, HOU

The rest of the bunch. All of these guys have serious questions, and should only be rostered in the deepest of leagues.

Linebacker
1. Patrick Willis, ILB, SF

Willis is the gold standard at linebacker. He's absolutely the guy you want to own, and I'm not afraid to pull the trigger on the guy as early as round five if I don't like my options. He's productive every week and I can't say good enough things about him. I don't like spending high picks on IDPs, but Willis is the only exception.

2. Curtis Lofton, MLB, ATL
3. Jon Beason, MLB/WLB, CAR
4. David Harris, ILB, NYJ
5. Barrett Ruud, MLB, TB
6. Paul Posluszny, ILB, BUF
7. D.J. Williams, ILB, DEN
8. James Laurinaitis, MLB, STL
9. Ray Lewis, MLB, BAL

You can't question any of these guys - they're all studs for their respective teams. A few are going through position changes (Beason and Posluszny), but I see no reason why any of these guys should see any setbacks. You want at least one of these guys on your fantasy team.

10. DeMeco Ryans, MLB, HOU
11. Jonathan Vilma, MLB, NO
12. London Fletcher, ILB, WAS
13. Rolando McClain, MLB, OAK
14. DeAndre Levy, MLB, DET
15. Karlos Dansby, ILB, MIA
16. Gary Brackett, MLB, IND
17. Lofa Tatupu, MLB, SEA

Linebacker is fairly deep this year, so this second tier is a place I'd want to avoid. I don't mind any of these guys, but I think there's value a little later to be had. This group of guys will simply go too early for my tastes. Why spend a high pick on a guy like Ryans when I can get a player almost on his level for a much cheaper price?

18. Nick Barnett, ILB, GB
19. Kirk Morrison, MLB, JAX
20. Stewart Bradley, MLB, PHI
21. Brian Cushing, WLB, HOU
22. James Harrison, OLB, PIT
23. E.J. Henderson, MLB, MIN
24. Lawrence Timmons, ILB, PIT
25. Lance Briggs, WLB, CHI
26. D'Qwell Jackson, ILB, CLE
27. Jerod Mayo, ILB, NE
28. Brian Urlacher, MLB, CHI
29. DeMarcus Ware, OLB, DAL
30. Stephen Tulloch, MLB, TEN
31. Geno Hayes, WLB, TB
32. LaMarr Woodley, OLB, PIT

See what I meant about the depth at linebacker? I see very little difference between guys like Vilma and Mayo, or Dansby and Tulloch. In your standard 12-team league, I would aim to have three of these top 32. If you start only one or two linebackers, that means you don't even need to go any deeper than this portion of the list. Keep an eye on Geno Hayes. He's in a very productive position in Tampa, and could theoretically outscore Ruud if things fall right.

33. Daryl Washington, ILB, ARI
34. Anthony Spencer, OLB, DAL
35. Justin Durant, WLB, JAX
36. Ernie Sims, WLB, PHI
37. Rey Maualuga, MLB/SLB, CIN
38. Chad Greenway, WLB, MIN
39. Clay Matthews, OLB, GB
40. Calvin Pace, OLB, NYJ
41. Clint Session, WLB, IND

There's a slight drop-off into this area, as a lot of these guys have situations that could change in camp. Maualuga could fly up the list if he starts at MLB - but he could also be doomed to SLB where he would be no better than a LB4. This whole tier is a little shaky.

42. Elvis Dumervil, OLB, DEN
43. Derrick Johnson, ILB, KC
44. Tamba Hali, OLB, KC
45. Rocky McIntosh, ILB, WAS
46. David Hawthorne, WLB/SLB, SEA
47. Stephen Cooper, ILB, SD
48. Mike Peterson, WLB/SLB, ATL
49. Brian Orakpo, OLB, WAS
50. James Farrior, ILB, PIT

Hawthorne is an intriguing player - he was uber-productive while Lofa Tatupu was hurt last year, but we just don't know if he's going to make the starting lineup. If Leroy Hill is cut, he could be in the top 25 at LB easily. I'm projecting a down year for Dumervil at OLB; I just don't think he'll have the same sack numbers as he did last year.

51. Aaron Curry, SLB, SEA
52. Bradie James, ILB, DAL
53. Michael Boley, SLB, NYG
54. Bart Scott, ILB, NYJ
55. Daryl Smith, SLB, JAX
56. A.J. Hawk, ILB, GB
57. Demorrio Williams, ILB, KC
58. Shaun Phillips, OLB, SD
59. Will Witherspoon, WLB, TEN
60. Keith Rivers, WLB, CIN
61. Shawne Merriman, OLB, SD
62. Thomas Howard, WLB, OAK

There's an interesting big of big-play linebackers and steady guys on this list. I doubt Merriman will ever see his mojo return, and he's going to be just another guy for the rest of his career. I don't mind having these guys on my roster, I just don't want a lot of them there. I'd much rather stash a wide receiver or running back if I can.

Defensive Back
1. Yeremiah Bell, SS, MIA
2. Bernard Pollard, SS, HOU
3. Tyvon Branch, SS, OAK
4. Dashon Goldson, FS, SF
5. Brian Dawkins, SS, DEN
6. Louis Delmas, FS, DET
7. Roman Harper, SS, NO
8. LaRon Landry, SS, WAS

Defensive backs usually are pretty fungible, but these eight players should be on your radar. Each have very little risk, which is a big thing at the DB spot. The last thing I want is to take a zero at a position where it isn't necessary. Bell is a the clear-cut #1 in my opinion, but each of them have some nice value.

9. Eric Weddle, FS, SD
10. Oshiomogho Atogwe, SS, STL
11. Antoine Winfield, CB, MIN
12. Antoine Bethea, FS, IND
13. Quintin Mikell, SS, PHI
14. Eric Berry, SS, KC
15. Charles Tillman, CB, CHI
16. Kerry Rhodes, FS, ARI
17. Adrian Wilson, SS, ARI

Hopefully you can find a few of these guys in the late rounds of your draft. I wouldn't want to spend anything more than a last-round pick on a defensive back who isn't elite.

18. Patrick Chung, SS, NE
19. Brandon Flowers, CB, KC
20. Richard Marshall, CB, CAR
21. Sean Jones, SS, TB
22. Chris Hope, SS, TEN
23. Darren Sharper, FS, NO
24. Troy Polamalu, SS, PIT
25. Charles Woodson, CB, GB

Polamalu is as overrated as they come in fantasy circles. When he's healthy, he puts up some decent numbers, but they aren't nearly going to be good enough to justify where you'd have to draft him. He'll go as a top 10 DB, and he's simply not going to finish that high.

26. Chris Harris, SS, CHI
27. Leon Hall, CB, CIN
28. Cortland Finnegan, CB, TEN
29. Antrel Rolle, FS, NYG
30. Danieal Manning, FS, CHI
31. Nick Collins, FS, GB
32. Johnathan Joseph, CB, CIN
33. Erik Coleman, FS, ATL

I like both the Cincinnati corners, because they are aggressive tacklers. You'll notice a lot of free safeties and corners into this part of the list, simply because the sure-thing starters at SS are all gone.

34. Tracy Porter, CB, NO
35. Darrelle Revis, CB, NYJ
36. Tramon Williams, CB, GB
37. Brandon Meriweather, FS, NE
38. Bob Sanders, SS, IND
39. Bryan Scott, SS, BUF
40. Aqib Talib, CB, TB
41. DeAngelo Hall, CB, WAS
42. Kenny Phillips, SS, NYG
43. Tanard Jackson, FS, TB
44. Michael Lewis, SS, SF
45. Dawan Landry, SS, BAL
46. Cedric Griffin, CB, MIN
47. Champ Bailey, CB, DEN
48. Ed Reed, FS, BAL

At this point DBs really fall into a cluster of guys where nobody sticks out over the other. One might ask why Ed Reed is this low, but he simply isn't a productive fantasy option.

49. Nate Allen, FS, PHI
50. Darrell Stuckey, SS, SD
51. Michael Griffin, FS, TEN
52. George Wilson, FS/SS, BUF
53. Roy Williams, SS, CIN
54. Marcus Trufant, CB, SEA
55. Jordan Babineaux, SS, SEA
56. Gerald Alexander, SS, JAX
57. Asante Samuel, CB, PHI
58. Abram Elam, SS, CLE

Keep an eye on these guys, particularly the rookies. If they earn starting spots they could have a ton of value. It's O.K. to swing for the fences, but be ready to cut bait if your DB doesn't have a stranglehold on a starting spot by the middle of camp. I have little doubt there are multiple players not on this list that will end up in the top 15 at DB, but it's just so hard to predict which ones will break out.

Questions? Complaints? Email me at jason@morepointsthanyou.com with "IDP Rankings" in your subject line.

Non PPR Dynasty Rankings - Rookies

1. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
2. Ryan Matthews, RB, SD
3. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
4. Jahvid Best, RB, DET
5. Ben Tate, RB, HOU
6. Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE
7. Rolando McClain, LB, OAK
8. Arrelious Benn, WR, TB
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
10. Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
11. Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN
12. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT
13. Golden Tate, WR, SEA
14. Sam Bradford, QB, STL
15. Mike Williams, WR, TB
16. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT
17. Taylor Price, WR, NE
18. Jimmy Clausen, QB, CAR
19. Daryl Washington, LB, ARI
20. Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE
21. Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN
22. Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR
23. Colt McCoy, QB, CLE
24. Andre Roberts, WR, ARI
25. Donald Butler, LB, SD
26. Sean Weatherspoon, LB, ATL
27. Tim Tebow, QB, DEN
28. Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
29. Armanti Edwards, WR, CAR
30. James Starks, RB, GB
31. John Skelton, QB, ARI
32. Mardy Gilyard, WR, STL
33. Damian Williams, WR, TEN
34. Eric Decker, WR, DEN
35. LeGarrette Blount, RB, TEN
36. Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
37. Carlton Mitchell, WR, CLE
38. Joe McKnight, RB, NYJ
39. Anthony Dixon, RB, SF
40. Jordan Shipley, WR, CIN
41. Tony Pike, QB, CAR
42. Brandon Graham, DE, PHI
43. Sean Lee, LB, DAL
44. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, NYG
45. Marcus Easley, WR, BUF
46. Brandon Spikes, LB, NE
47. Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL
48. Dezmon Briscoe, WR, CIN
49. Morgan Burnett, S, GB
50. Tony Moeaki, TE, KC
51. Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK
52. Eric Berry, S, KC
53. Taylor Mays, S, SF
54. Derrick Morgan, DE, TEN
55. Earl Thomas, S, SEA
56. Deji Karim, RB, JAX
57. Mike Kafka, QB, PHI
58. Charles Scott, RB, PHI
59. Dorin Dickerson, WR, HOU
60. Jonathan Crompton, QB, SD

Dynasty PPR Rankings - Rookies

Dynasty draft season is upon us! Here's a quick cheatsheet for PPR leagues. My rankings are a little wacky, but it's dynasty leagues, so it's about how the value will shape up in a few years. Questions or comments? Email me at jason@morepointsthanyou.com.

1. C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
2. Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
3. Ryan Matthews, RB, SD
4. Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
5. Jahvid Best, RB, DET
6. Arrelious Benn, WR, TB
7. Rolando McClain, LB, OAK
8. Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
10. Ben Tate, RB, HOU
11. Golden Tate, WR, SEA
12. Sam Bradford, QB, STL
13. Mike Williams, WR, TB
14. Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN
15. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT
16. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT
17. Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE
18. Taylor Price, WR, NE
19. Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN
20. Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR
21. Daryl Washington, LB, ARI
22. Jimmy Clausen, QB, CAR
23. Armanti Edwards, WR, CAR
24. Andre Roberts, WR, ARI
25. Colt McCoy, QB, CLE
26. Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
27. Donald Butler, LB, SD
28. Mardy Gilyard, WR, STL
29. Tim Tebow, QB, DEN
30. Sean Weatherspoon, LB, ATL
31. Eric Decker, WR, DEN
32. John Skelton, QB, ARI
33. Damian Williams, WR, TEN
34. James Starks, RB, GB
35. Jordan Shipley, WR, CIN
36. Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
37. Carlton Mitchell, WR, CLE
38. Joe McKnight, RB, NYJ
39. Anthony Dixon, RB, SF
40. LeGarrette Blount, RB, TEN
41. Tony Pike, QB, CAR
42. Dennis Pitta, TE, BAL
43. Brandon Graham, DE, PHI
44. Sean Lee, LB, DAL
45. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, NYG
46. Marcus Easley, WR, BUF
47. Brandon Spikes, LB, NE
48. Dezmon Briscoe, WR, CIN
49. Morgan Burnett, S, GB
50. Tony Moeaki, TE, KC
51. Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK
52. Eric Berry, S, KC
53. Taylor Mays, S, SF
54. Derrick Morgan, DE, TEN
55. Earl Thomas, S, SEA
56. Deji Karim, RB, JAX
57. Mike Kafka, QB, PHI
58. Charles Scott, RB, PHI
59. Dorin Dickerson, WR, HOU
60. Jonathan Crompton, QB, SD