I took a trip to Vegas for the Fourth of July weekend, and was ready to drop some major dollars on over/under season wagers.
The casinos were chicken - they weren't interested in my action. One could argue it was because of the NFL lockout. I say it's because they saw me coming. Clearly my $50 wagers would break the bank eventually.
Just remember - over/under season wagers are generally sucker bets. You're giving the casino lots of vig, and they get to hold your money for six months. I have little doubt we could all make a lot more money placing our cash in a savings account, or by just betting games weekly.
In fact, it's not a terrible idea to use these numbers to gauge how the public feels about early season matchups. Use preseason perception to your advantage, and cash in.
That being said, it's no fun to not throw some cash out there. So here are the wagers I like for 2011.
Well, that liver transplant can wait...
Detroit under 7.5 (+115)
The Lions are a public darling. The public thinks they're some bad luck and a player or two away. They won their last four games in 2010, and they have two dominant players (Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson.) Now with Matthew Stafford back, they're ready to get to the playoffs, right?
Wrong.
Their defense is filled with flaws, starting with Suh. He's not a dominant tackle. He makes some big plays, but he also gets out of position and allows for big plays. And their secondary is a joke. This is a flawed team, and the public doesn't realize it. The Martin Mayhew era is a lot closer to the Matt Millen era than the public realizes. This is an easy win, and we're getting odds on it too.
Philadelphia under 10.5 (+120)
The hype on Philly is officially out of control. Their biggest problem is clearly Michael Vick. He's gone on the record saying he's not willing to change his style. It worked well the first half of 2010, but teams adjusted and he'll be back to the form he showed in Atlanta - which is a turnover machine.
I'd be all about the Eagles if they had a west-coast style QB, who can put touch on the ball and let the receivers run after the catch. But Vick just isn't that guy. I'll be betting against the Eagles hard and heavy this season, and this is officially your invitation to get aboard.
Bet the mortgage money
Kansas City over 7.5 (-125)
This line is low. Clearly the public thinks the Chiefs are a one-year wonder, and that San Diego will rule the West. While I'm uncertain about the Chargers, I am sure the Chiefs are no fluke. Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are no joke. They have one of the best pass-rushers in the league (Tamba Hali) and are a .500 team at worst.
NY Giants over 9.5 (+130)
I'd like to thank the public for screwing this one up. It's pretty rare that you can get a good price on a New York team, and the Giants are the rare case where it's true. They've got a strong pass-rush and a strong offense. It's not a lock they get to 10 wins, but I love the price we're getting.
NY Jets under 10 (-115)
The Jets are built to win now. And it got them to two AFC title games. But it won't get them anywhere near a third. They're light on the defensive line, and with their pass-rush. Calvin Pace is a nice player, but he's their only threat, and he isn't exactly the most healthy guy in the league. Are you comfortable with the Jets winning 11 games on the strength of their offense? Yea, me either.
Houston under 8.5 (EVEN)
I live in the Houston, and I'm amazed at the hype for this team. It's hard to flip a team from 4-3 to 3-4, and have any kind of success in one offseason. But in particular, I don't buy into the Texans simply because their front office has spent every dollar they can on defense, and assumes the status quo will be fine on offense. Houston's offense was statistically good last season, but a lot of that was because they were playing from behind and passing the ball. You can't win in the league by filling holes. The league is about maintenance, and the Texans are toast once they start having any injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
Bet the vacation money
Jacksonville over 6.5 (+120)
Full disclosure - I'm a Jaguars fan. But I see this as a team of ascension. They've filled some holes on defense, but they'll win in 2011 because of their young players who are ready to turn the corner. They've built a promising defensive line, and I think their offense is quietly dynamic. I think .500 is about right, but with some breaks, they could easily get to nine or ten wins.
Pittsburgh under 10.5 (EVEN)
It's not that I don't think the Steelers will be bad, but 11 wins is a tough task for a team with legitimate holes. Clearly the Steelers still have problems on their offensive line, and I doubt Ben Roethlisberger can stay healthy. Troy Polamalu doesn't impress me (guesses too often, gets injured too often) and I'd much rather take even money and assume the Steelers will regress from 2010. I just think their defense is a little old, and I'm not ready to assume they'll be #1 this season with their age.
San Diego under 10 (+105)
Yes, everyone knows the statistic by now - the Chargers finished 2011 with the #1-rated offense and defense, yet still missed the playoffs. But there are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics. What my eyes tell me is San Diego can't run the ball, don't have any great pass-rushers, and I'm not sure about the health of Antonio Gates. To be the over, I have to think they'll get to 11 wins, and I'd much rather assume they'll be mediocre.
New England over 11.5 (-115)
12 wins is a ton - but the Patriots have used the draft to build an embarassment of riches at practically every position on their team. From 2008-2011, the Patriots have had 21 picks in the first three rounds. Even if they whiff on half of them (and they've missed here and there), that's still 10 legitimate starters. As long as Bill Belichick is running things, they'll never miss the playoffs. It sucks to bet, and lose even if the Pats go 11-5 - but it's still the right move with this team.
Well, it's safer than the stock market...
Buffalo over 5.5 (-115)
I give credit to The Big Lead for being the first to say it, but the Bills are better than everyone thinks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is efficient, and they'll be in the mix for 8 wins if they get anything out of their 3-4 defense. Rather than giving my thoughts, I'll echo that of Jason Lisk (who is wrong about the Jags, but right about the Bills.)
Seattle over 6.5 (+160)
OK - so I loathe this Seattle team. I think Pete Carroll and his group of lackies will run this franchise into the ground... but I can't ignore a huge number like +160, for a team that won its division. If I had to guess, I'd say Seattle looks like a 5-11 team. But they've added talent on both offense and defense, and taking -200 is just too much for me. I expect to lose this bet around 60% of the time - but odds say it's a winning proposition as long as they'll top this number 40% of the time.
(Skip this section if you don't like math)
Say you bet $100 on the Seahawks over, and the hypothetical season is played 10 times. You'll lose 6 times, for a total of -$600. But the four times you win, you'll win $160 each, for a total of $640. That's a profit of $40, which means you're $4 to the good side for this bet. $4 isn't much, but you need every edge you can get against Vegas. You aren't a gambler if you aren't interested in any bet where you feel like you have an edge.
Minnesota under 7 (-105)
The Vikings are the perfect example of what happens to a team if you sell out to try to win, and fail. They traded three picks for Jared Allen, signed aging veterans and drafted to fill perceived holes. Now their offensive line is a joke, their entire defense is on social security and their present is bleak. (New York Jets - this is your future). Adrian Peterson can't carry the team by himself to .500, and we'll see Christian Ponder probably by week six or seven.
St. Louis over 7.5 (EVEN)
I love what the Rams have done on defense. They've got Chris Long, who led the league in QB pressures (Thanks, Football Outsiders), drafted Robert Quinn and still has plenty of room to grow on offense with Sam Bradford. They look a lot like the Giants with Eli, who got to the playoffs in his second season.
Look at this $20 I found in the laundry!
Carolina over 4.5 (-135)
The Panthers loved 2010 so much, they spent a mountain of money to bring back their guys. But I actually agree with them re-signing Charles Johnson - I'm just not sure about the amount of money they spent on DeAngelo Williams. The combination of Williams and Jonathan Stewart though, along with anybody at quarterback other than Jimmy Clausen should lead to a half dozen wins.
Atlanta under 10.5 (-165)
I thought Atlanta was a chic pick - but the numbers here say the public doesn't believe in the Falcons. I agree. I hate taking such a big number, but I just don't see it this year for the Falcons. They think they are one or two players away, and that's why they spend picks and cash on Ray Edwards and Julio Jones. I just don't see it. Their offensive line doesn't impress me, and neither does their pass-rush or secondary.
Again folks - the whole idea of season over/under wins is basically a sucker bet. Even if you hit 75% of your wagers, you'll still a) paying larger vig than regular season games and b) letting the casinos hold your money for six months, interest free. So don't sink a large amount of your bankroll into these bets. But they sure as hell are fun.
