more points than you

Super Bowl Pick

Last week: 1-1 (+1 unit)
Overall: 84-68-22 (+49 units)

Hilarious that it's come to this. My goal this season was to finish ahead 50 units. Of course, that means I just need to do one thing: win the Super Bowl.

I'm not one for drama, so I'm just coming out with it. I love the Patriots in this game.

Their offense is simply amazing. Baltimore had them look awful, but I think they're catching the right team in the right game in this situation. Most will focus on New England's offense against the defense of the Giants. The difference in this game I think is New England's underrated defense against the Giants, who are struggling on the offensive line.

Anyone who watched the NFC Championship game saw the Giants get beat up by San Francisco's defense. Now a lot of that is because of how good San Francisco is - but New England isn't nearly as bad as everyone thinks. Their defensive ranking is lower than it should be because they got ahead of so many teams this season.

That means a ton of teams passed on them and never even bothered to run. There's a reason they were at the bottom of the yardage rankings, but were in the middle of the pack in scoring defense. They weren't afraid to surrender useless yards at the end of the game - but were still relatively stingy in giving up points.

That's the matchup everyone is missing in this situation - I think Vince Wilfork and New England's defense can force the Giants into making a few mistakes, and getting a lead early.

A lot of gamblers will big-ball on the Super Bowl because it's the last game to wager on in the season. I absolutely love the Pats in this game, but I strongly encourage gamblers not to go crazy here. If you've been gambling with me, then you're playing with house money - but don't blow it all.

So my call, is New England -2.5, and putting 5-7 units on the game (for my records, I'm going with 6 units.)

Good luck in the game, and here are some of the prop bets I like:

First Touchdown
This is my absolute favorite prop of them all. You can get big odds on some of these guys.
Personally, my bet is Tom Brady at 25-1. He's excellent at quarterback sneaks, and the odds are huge. I also like the Field at 8-1.

National Anthem - Over/Under 94 seconds
The NFL is pretty good at making celebs know to get the show on the road. Let's go with the under here.

TD Passes, Eli Manning - Over/Under 2.5
An easy win here, as I think it's highly unlikely Eli hits 3 TDs. Take Under 2.5 (-175)

Exact Number of TD Passes, Tom Brady
I just get the feeling it's one of those Brady games. Maybe he'll have a rushing TD, etc. But at +275, I'll roll with Brady having 3 TD Passes.

Remember, the prop bets are just for fun. I wouldn't actually bet on any of them with any real money. 

Conference Championship Picks

Last week: 3-1 (+6 units)
Overall: 83-67-22 (+48 units)

We hit our stride last week - they were some serious issues with the numbers on the board. I've waiting a while to post these picks because I wanted to see line movements and how the public was seeing these two games. I think both of these games have serious opportunities to make cash. Let's do it.

4 unit pick
baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
Too many people saw Baltimore struggle last week against Houston, and New England roll over the Broncos. I just think the Ravens match up much better with New England than they did with Houston last week. The whole key to stopping New England is getting pressure on Tom Brady. Denver wasn't able to do it last week, but Baltimore should be able to with guys like Terrell Suggs, Jarrett Johnson and Haloti Ngata. Perhaps it's been overquoted at this point, but it's worth noting - New England hasn't beaten a single team this season over is over .500. I like Baltimore in this game straight up, but I love them getting a touchdown.

3 unit pick
SAN FRANCISCO (-2) over new york giants
I feel like there was a strange shift in this game - originally, the public liked the Giants, then shifted to San Francisco. Now this number has shrunk down to just two points, which tells me most are on the Giants. They played earlier this year, and the 49ers were 3.5-point favorites. Now they're suddenly down to two? It's because the gamblers don't think the 49ers can legitimately make the Super Bowl. They absolutely can, and they should. I'd love to see the Giants go to the Super Bowl, but my brain can't go with them in this one.

Good luck to everyone, and we'll have some fun prop bets between now and the Super Bowl. Good luck! 

Gambling Picks, Divisional Round

Last week: 1-3 (-4 units)
Overall: 80-66-23 (+42 units)

We struggled last week. I felt myself going against the math and with my gut, which is clearly the wrong move. I'll try to put my feelings aside, as I plan to stick with the numbers this week.

Let's not forget that a lot of gamblers bet based on what they want to see happen, not only this week, but in the upcoming weeks of the playoffs. Would you be surprised if you heard Saints fans say they think the Packers are vulnerable to the Giants? Same with the Ravens saying they think the Broncos could give the Patriots a game?

Just remember that the gambling public are absolutely what build these lines, and move on from there. If you're getting an extra three points in a game, that's enough to move on it every time. Give me the 65% winner every time, even if it's going to burn me once every three games.

4 unit picks
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over new orleans
It's an absolute joke that the 49ers are getting points at home against this New Orleans team. I love the quarterback position, but it proves once again that gamblers underestimate the importance of things like defense and the running game. San Francisco has the firepower on defense to stop the Saints, and I love the 49ers in this game straight up - but I'll gladly get four points at home.

3 unit picks
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over denver
New England's defense has quietly picked up steam as the season has gone on, despite teams passing a ton against them because they were trailing. In other words, they're underrated this year. I've been an unabashed Tebow-hater this season, but I just can't imagine them hanging this week with the Patriots.

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over houston
Houston has hit some nice matchups at the right time this season. But what I can't find is a legitimate reason to pick them on the road against this Ravens team. Baltimore has too much firepower on offense and won't make the silly mistakes Cincinnati made against them.

2 unit picks
new york giants (+7.5) over GREEN BAY
I went back and forth on this one all week - but I don't see a big difference between this game and the one the Giants played with the Packers in week 14. There's always the potential of the Eli Manning blow up game - but I think New York's defense line can dominate this game and possibly pull the upset.

Gambling Picks - Wild Card Round

Last week: 5-3-1 (+6 units)
Overall: 79-63-23 (+46 units)

Though there's always room for improvement, I was pretty happy with the regular season. 16 games over .500, and a nice return on investment if you rolled with me this season.

But it's the playoffs, and there's even more opportunity out there. Just remember, the public have major expectations that always shift the line. I want to go 11-0 in the playoff season, but I'm always going to take the side that is on the side of the math.

And that's the only rule that's worth following. Every ridiculous prognosticator in the world has some ridiculous set of rules to justify his picks. "Don't take a rookie quarterback on the road", or "never bet against X coach in a big game." Forget about those things. Go with the math.

4 unit picks
NY GIANTS (-3) over atlanta
A lot of gamblers are afraid of the Giants. They have the ability to win (and lose) against anyone it seems. I disagree, in that I don't think there's any chance they lose this week to Atlanta. They've simply got too much talent on both sides of the ball, and I think the gamblers are waiting for the Falcons to show up in a big game. I think they'll be disappointed this week.

3 unit picks
detroit (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Call me crazy, but I just don't buy into the New Orleans hype. The public thinks they are the team who can challenge the Packers, and that's pushing this line into double digits. Detroit has been an overvalued team this season but should be able to cover this one easily, if not win outright.

pittsburgh (-8.5) over DENVER
I expected this line to continue to jump thanks to the Tebow backlash. But with Pittsburgh's injuries, it's kept it nicely in line. It's tempting to stay away from this one, but I can't help it - I just can't imagine Tim Tebow showing up against a legitimate defense. The only way I see Denver hanging is if Ben Roethlisberger has one of "those games." I'm guessing we'll wait to see that one until next week.

2 unit picks
cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON
Cincinnati has been an undervalued team the entire season. It's easy to throw out the stat that they were 0-7 against playoff teams. But the success of a team isn't based on who they lose to, it's on their entire body of work. And Houston just isn't a quality team with TJ Yates at quarterback.

Week 17 Picks

Last week: 4-5 (-9 units)
Overall: 74-60-11 (+40 units)

A painful week.

My time has been limited, and the holidays put a crimp on the picks. Heck, even this week I haven't been able to post these until the last minute.

Plus, I frickin' hate week 17. It's so hard to predict which teams are going to play starters or not. But we're here for you this week.

And don't forget, we'll be here with extensive breakdown of playoff matchups. I expect playoff picks to be up their usual time, usually Thursday nights.

Good luck to everyone, and let's keep making money!

4 unit picks
NY GIANTS (-3) over dallas
The Cowboys killed us by pulling their starters after their game with Philadelphia became meaningless. That's on me for not realizing the start times could have done that one to us. The start time doesn't matter for this one, as it's simply winner take all in the division. The Giants simply have more talent than Dallas, particuarly in their ability to generate a pass rush. I think they'll dominate this game and perhaps get on a roll in the playoffs.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over carolina
I'm calling this one early - Carolina will be my favorite team to bet against next season. The shine will eventually fade off the Cam Newton bandwagon, and people are going to be catch on late. This week, New Orleans should crush Carolina because Sean Peyton wants that second round game to be in New Orleans, and the Saints are just that much better than the Panthers right now.

CINCINNATI (+2.5) over baltimore
Obviously this is a very important game for both teams - Baltimore is looking to finally get a home playoff game, while Cincinnati is trying to make its way into the playoffs. I feel like the public is on Baltimore too much in this one, as they want to see the "justice" of the Ravens finally winning their division over Pittsburgh. But I like to bet against "justice", because it usually gets you an extra point or two. In this case, that means rolling with the Bengals.

3 unit picks
JACKSONVILLE (-3) over indianapolis
As a Jags fan, I wouldn't mind seeing them lose this one so the Colts won't be able to select Andrew Luck in the draft. But I just can't see it happening. Jacksonville's defense is dead, but it should be able to stop Dan Orlovsky. My heart says Indy, but my head says Jacksonville should win easily.

tennessee (-1) over HOUSTON
The Texans might be saying all the right things about wanting to get momentum going into the playoffs, but they clearly are more interested in getting healthy before their eventual playoff loss to Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Tennessee has everything to play for, and will put all they have into trouncing the Texans.

OAKLAND (-2.5) over san diego
I love it - the public still has this fascination with San Diego, even though a) their coach is a dead-man walking and b) they've been eliminated from playoff contention. The Chargers are poorly built, and caught too many injuries this season. Oakland should run all over them and smother them on defense.

2 unit picks
kansas city (+3) over DENVER
The most underrated unit in the entire NFL this season in Kansas City's defense. These guys can play. Forget about the Kyle Orton angle, I just think KC's defense will be able to keep Denver from doing much of anything. Orton should manage the game nicely and lead the Chiefs to an upset.

pittsburgh (-6.5) over CLEVELAND
Last week the Steelers saw what a healthy quarterback can do against a bad team. Hopefully this week they'll be smart enough to sit Ben Roethlisberger and play Charlie Batch. If that happens, Pittsburgh should easily cover the number. If Big Ben is in, I might be a little more gunshy about this line.

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over buffalo
The Patriots have had the quietest 12-3 start to the season I've ever heard of. They're one easy win from home-field advantage, but no one is talking about it. Buffalo is toast right now, and I expect the Patriots to roll up all kinds of offensive numbers on their way to an easy win.

Good luck to everyone, and we'll see you in the playoffs!

Gambling Picks, Week 16

Last week: 6-2-1 (+13 units)
Overall: 70-55-11 (+49 units)

A heck of a bounce back after a real disappointing week 15. But the winners were there, and they were pretty obvious.

And they're still there right now. The public is loving a few teams that have no business getting that kind of love. Reputations are building false lines, and bad superstitions are doing it as well.

Let's ride high into the end of the regular season and cash a big winner.

4 unit picks
chicago (+13.5) over GREEN BAY
The almighty Packers can't possibly lose two in a row, right? Wrong. While I do think they"ll beat the Bears, this line is way out of whack. The Bears have benched Caleb Hanie and should be able to take advantage of Green Bay's weak offensive line. I also think the Packers are smart enough to realize they need to protect Aaron Rodgers from too many hits, and they'll do everything short of mailing this one in.

DALLAS (-1.5) over philadelphia
I love it. I've made a mint betting against the Eagles this season - and they give the public one last shot to make me some serious cash. The Cowboys are simply the better team, and this misconception of a "hot team" gives you all the ammo you need to fire away on this one.

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over miami
The Patriots clearly have hit their stride. That offense looks positively unstoppable, and Miami should struggle to slow them down at all. The Patriots should roll the Dolphins with ease.

3 unit picks
st. louis (+16) over PITTSBURGH
I love it - Pittsburgh looks terrible on a Monday night, and are suddenly giving 16? No thanks. I'll take the Rams with Kellen Clemens. Pittsburgh should probably win this one, but I feel like they're clearly trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time.

oakland (+2.5) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs win a couple games and are suddenly favorites? What'd I miss? The Chiefs aren't nearly as bad as they've looked at points in the season, but they'e not that good either. Meanwhile, Oakland is struggling but still should be able to get it under control. They're still the best team in this division.

arizona (+4.5) over CINCINNATI
No one believes in Arizona - yet somehow, they're in the playoff race. The Cardinals have a dominant defensive line and should be able to attack the fading Bengals. It's hard to imagine the Bengals getting too much respect, but it's absolutely what's happened in this case.

2 unit picks
ny giants (+3) over NY JETS
The Giants are the better team, yet they're getting three on a neutral field? I love it. Eli put up a clunker last week, but so did Mark Sanchez. The Giants are simply better on both sides of the ball and should dominate this one.

jacksonville (+7.5) over TENNESSEE
Jacksonville is coming off a hideous outing against a team that absolutely played to its weakness - pass-protection and pass-defense. This week, they play the Titans who can't pass and who can't rush the passer. I think this is a tight game and the Jags should cover easily.

cleveland (+13.5) over BALTIMORE
The public loves Baltimore and expects the Ravens to roll the Browns in a bounce-back game. I just don't see it. Cleveland can play, particularly now that Colt McCoy is out of the lineup. They'll keep this one close.

Gambling Picks, Week 15

Last week: 2-6-1 (-14 units)
Overall: 64-53-10 (+36 units)

What an awful week. We just were terrible. A couple bad beats, but no excuses - we must be better. For now, an abbreviated version of the picks. I’ll try to log on Friday and elaborate on these selections. Rest assured that I’ve still put thought into these, I just haven’t had the time to sit down and explain why. Sometimes life just gets a bit in the way. Good luck everyone!

4 unit picks
new england (-7) over DENVER
baltimore (-2) over SAN DIEGO
new orleans (-6.5) over MINNESOTA

3 unit picks
dallas (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY
seattle (+3.5) over CHICAGO
INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) over tennessee

2 unit picks
OAKLAND (+1) over detroit
cleveland (+7) over ARIZONA
HOUSTON (-6) over carolina

Gambling Picks, Week 14

Last week: 4-5 (-1 units)
Overall: 62-47-9 (+50 units)

Are we leveling off, or just hitting a skid? I suppose -1 unit being a bad week is a good thing. But I just see so many missed opportunities. And I hate missed chances to make money.

This time of year it's easy to find lots of misperceptions out there. The first is of a team "quitting." That's ridiculous. Professional football players don't quit. Maybe teams will put a load of players on IR, but no players actively stop trying.

There's also the "must win game" - trust me, there are a lot of games like those that are lost.

Again, let's repeat the mantra. Our only goal is to find games where we're getting more points than we should. Anyone can try to pick winners, but if you're consistently getting more than you should, you'll be a winner long-term.

4 unit picks
oakland (+11.5) over GREEN BAY
It's interesting how the public tends to root for and against certain teams. I'm not sure why, but the public wants to see Green Bay get that perfect record. I've said it for a while - Green Bay is good, but they're a flawed team. The Raiders are getting way too many points in what should be a close game.

tampa bay (-1) over JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville's whole team is a mess - three cornerbacks on IR, no wide receivers and a rookie quarterback who can't play. Tampa isn't a great team, but they should win this game easily.

buffalo (+7) over SAN DIEGO
The public is used to the Chargers turning it on at the end of the year. But remember, the past has NOTHING to do with the future. This line is ridiculous and there's no way the Chargers should be giving a touchdown to anyone.

3 unit picks
new england (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
Clearly the Patriots are hitting their stride at the right time. Meanwhile, I don't know if Washington has one thing going for it right now. I smell a blowout.

DENVER (-3) over chicago
I'm not ready to join the Tim Tebow bandwagon, but I know a bargain when I see one. Chicago can't do much of anyone on offense and the Broncos should be able to wear out Chicago's old defense. I can't stand Tebow as a quarterback, but he should get a win here.

ny giants (+3.5) over DALLAS
For some reason the public refuses to believe in the Giants. Too bad for them, lucky for us. They think Dallas is a strong team, and they simply are not. I think the Giants match up well with them. Take the points and run with them.

2 unit picks
kansas city (+10.5) over NY JETS
I like this Chiefs team, particularly on defense. They clearly struggle on offense, but so do the Jets, right? Ten points is a lot in this case.

SEATTLE (-4.5) over st. louis
The Seahawks are hot at the wrong time - when it doesn't matter. Meanwhile, the Rams are as bad a team as there is in the league. This one should be a laugher.

MIAMI (-3) over philadelphia
Even with the return of Michael Vick, the Dolphins should be able to run all over Philadelphia's defense. The combination of Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should be enough to win this one.

Gambling Picks, Week 13

Last week: 6-3 (+11 units)
Overall: 58-42-9 (+51 units)

Does it sound cocky if I say it feels like it's been easy to win this year?

I guess it doesn't matter if it sounds cocky - I'm just happy with winning. We're going to continue to take the extra points when the public gives it.

And that's really all it takes to win. If that's arrogance, that I'm OK with being arrogant. Call me anything you want, as long as you also call me profitable.

4 unit picks
NY GIANTS (+7) over green bay
The Packers look unstoppable - or at least, they will be, until they're stopped. The Giants can play with the Pack, and they shouldn't be getting a full touchdown at home. The hype has exceeded the production for the Packers.

indianapolis (+20) over NEW ENGLAND
I thought a lot about this line. It's just too high. Too many people assume that Bill Belichick is going to run up the score against his old nemesis. I just don't buy it. The Colts defense can still play, and I don't think this game is a blowout.

atlanta (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Anyone reading this column knows I'm not fan of the Falcons this year - but Houston isn't going to be able to do anything on offense with a fifth-round rookie. They need to put up points against Atlanta, and it's just not going to happen.

3 unit picks
CHICAGO (-7) over kansas city
Chicago's offense is better than most think with Caleb Hanie at quarterback. I can't say the same about Kansas City with Tyler Palko. The Bears should roll at home.

cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH
I don't get this line - Cincinnati has played Baltimore and Pittsburgh both tight - and yet the Bengals are still getting a touchdown in what should be a tight game. Take the points and laugh.

NEW ORLEANS (-9) over detroit
Detroit is in a bad spot here - their poorly-constructed team is falling apart at the seams, with or without Ndamukong Suh. I hate that the line has risen from six to nine, but the public are right on this one.

2 unit picks
baltimore (-6.5) over CLEVELAND
The public has bought into the silliness of the Ravens playing down to their competition. It's as if they'd play a college team tight. They'll show their dominance against the Browns this week.

MINNESOTA (-1) over denver
Minnesota showed some backbone last week against Atlanta, as they were in the game the whole way. I don't buy into Denver's success, and I think they'll struggle this week.

st. louis (+13.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
St. Louis is struggling on defense - but I have no doubt they can keep this number low enough. San Francisco can't score enough to justify a line this big.

Gambling Picks, Week 12

 

Last week: 3-4-2 (-2 units)
Overall: 52-39-9 (+40 units)

I’m amazed at our inordinate amount of draws this year. We had two more last week, and had a couple results that could have easily bounced our way. Losing money is NEVER an acceptable result though. In fact, no result should satisfy us unless we are perfect. And clearly we aren’t there yet.

I still believe gamblers are behind a lot of these teams and they absolutely are willing to put cash on bad assumptions and superstitions.

One that always gets to me is the myth of effort. It’s my theory that these professional athletes are always playing hard but fans always think winning is only from guys not trying hard enough. Yea, like the Colts would be 10-0 if they only were trying harder.

I also notice a lot of people talking about the game from the week before. Remember, every game is an independent event. Every game is different - a team doesn’t play better or worse after a tough or easy game.

These are just two of a million ridiculous ideas that move the line. All we have to do is find enough times when that happen, and we’ll be profitable.

4 unit picks
green bay (-6.5) over DETROIT
Strange as it seems, the public seems to be on Detroit in this one. I think the public tends to root against a streak, and they see the sympathetic Lions as a great story - they want them to beat the Packers. That shrinks the line lower than it should.

new england (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
I don’t care if it’s Vince Young or Michael Vick, the Patriots are rolling, and should roll over the Eagles. It’s clear the gamblers want to believe in Philadelphia, as I have no clue why a 4-6 team is only getting a field goal against a 7-3 Patriots team.

buffalo (+9) over NEW YORK JETS
I love it. The Bills struggle, then have an injury - and the idiots jump all over the Jets. Nine points? Have you seen New York play this year? I think Buffalo still has an offense that can play explosively while the Jets have struggled. Give me the points.

3 unit picks
houston (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Unless Matt Leinart is an unmitigated disaster, the Texans should beat the Jaguars handily. Clearly this line says the gamblers think he could be as bad as he was in the past. I think Jacksonville is struggling on defense and should have a tough time stopping the Texans.

INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over carolina
It’s easy to give up on the Colts - they’ve definitely been awful this year. But the players aren’t tanking for a draft pick. They’ve been overmatched in the past but should be able to beat the Panthers and the overrated Cam Newton. Newton has thrown 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season - Curtis Painter has a very similar ratio (5 TDs, 7 INT.) I think the Colts get their first win.

minnesota (+9.5) over ATLANTA
Without Adrian Peterson, there’s no way the Vikings can win, right? Wrong. In Minnesota’s two wins this year, Peterson only averaged 4.18 yards per carry. In their losses? 4.8 yards per carry. The public overrates the importance of one player. I’m not saying the Vikings are better without him, but I do think they can hang with the Falcons without him.

2 unit picks
miami (+7) over DALLAS
Miami was never a bad team this season - they just had some awful luck early in the year. Clearly they can play, and they’ll show that in Dallas. I actually think the Cowboys are underrated this season, just not this week.

san francisco (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
Clearly the public needs to see the 49ers pick up a big win before they’ll bet with them. Get on board while you still can, because after they beat down the Ravens, they’ll be a national story. This line should be a pick’em, but I’ll gladly take the points.

arizona (+3) over ST. LOUIS
Anyone want to explain this line to me? Arizona has legitimate wins this season, as well as playmakers on offense. The Rams can’t do anything right, particuarly on offense. I think Arizona’s defensive line can dominate the Rams, and win this one easily. It won’t be pretty, but it will be a win.