Last week: 3-4-2 (-2 units)
Overall: 52-39-9 (+40 units)
I’m amazed at our inordinate amount of draws this year. We had two more last week, and had a couple results that could have easily bounced our way. Losing money is NEVER an acceptable result though. In fact, no result should satisfy us unless we are perfect. And clearly we aren’t there yet.
I still believe gamblers are behind a lot of these teams and they absolutely are willing to put cash on bad assumptions and superstitions.
One that always gets to me is the myth of effort. It’s my theory that these professional athletes are always playing hard but fans always think winning is only from guys not trying hard enough. Yea, like the Colts would be 10-0 if they only were trying harder.
I also notice a lot of people talking about the game from the week before. Remember, every game is an independent event. Every game is different - a team doesn’t play better or worse after a tough or easy game.
These are just two of a million ridiculous ideas that move the line. All we have to do is find enough times when that happen, and we’ll be profitable.
4 unit picks
green bay (-6.5) over DETROIT
Strange as it seems, the public seems to be on Detroit in this one. I think the public tends to root against a streak, and they see the sympathetic Lions as a great story - they want them to beat the Packers. That shrinks the line lower than it should.
new england (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
I don’t care if it’s Vince Young or Michael Vick, the Patriots are rolling, and should roll over the Eagles. It’s clear the gamblers want to believe in Philadelphia, as I have no clue why a 4-6 team is only getting a field goal against a 7-3 Patriots team.
buffalo (+9) over NEW YORK JETS
I love it. The Bills struggle, then have an injury - and the idiots jump all over the Jets. Nine points? Have you seen New York play this year? I think Buffalo still has an offense that can play explosively while the Jets have struggled. Give me the points.
3 unit picks
houston (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Unless Matt Leinart is an unmitigated disaster, the Texans should beat the Jaguars handily. Clearly this line says the gamblers think he could be as bad as he was in the past. I think Jacksonville is struggling on defense and should have a tough time stopping the Texans.
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over carolina
It’s easy to give up on the Colts - they’ve definitely been awful this year. But the players aren’t tanking for a draft pick. They’ve been overmatched in the past but should be able to beat the Panthers and the overrated Cam Newton. Newton has thrown 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season - Curtis Painter has a very similar ratio (5 TDs, 7 INT.) I think the Colts get their first win.
minnesota (+9.5) over ATLANTA
Without Adrian Peterson, there’s no way the Vikings can win, right? Wrong. In Minnesota’s two wins this year, Peterson only averaged 4.18 yards per carry. In their losses? 4.8 yards per carry. The public overrates the importance of one player. I’m not saying the Vikings are better without him, but I do think they can hang with the Falcons without him.
2 unit picks
miami (+7) over DALLAS
Miami was never a bad team this season - they just had some awful luck early in the year. Clearly they can play, and they’ll show that in Dallas. I actually think the Cowboys are underrated this season, just not this week.
san francisco (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
Clearly the public needs to see the 49ers pick up a big win before they’ll bet with them. Get on board while you still can, because after they beat down the Ravens, they’ll be a national story. This line should be a pick’em, but I’ll gladly take the points.
arizona (+3) over ST. LOUIS
Anyone want to explain this line to me? Arizona has legitimate wins this season, as well as playmakers on offense. The Rams can’t do anything right, particuarly on offense. I think Arizona’s defensive line can dominate the Rams, and win this one easily. It won’t be pretty, but it will be a win.
Overall: 52-39-9 (+40 units)
I’m amazed at our inordinate amount of draws this year. We had two more last week, and had a couple results that could have easily bounced our way. Losing money is NEVER an acceptable result though. In fact, no result should satisfy us unless we are perfect. And clearly we aren’t there yet.
I still believe gamblers are behind a lot of these teams and they absolutely are willing to put cash on bad assumptions and superstitions.
One that always gets to me is the myth of effort. It’s my theory that these professional athletes are always playing hard but fans always think winning is only from guys not trying hard enough. Yea, like the Colts would be 10-0 if they only were trying harder.
I also notice a lot of people talking about the game from the week before. Remember, every game is an independent event. Every game is different - a team doesn’t play better or worse after a tough or easy game.
These are just two of a million ridiculous ideas that move the line. All we have to do is find enough times when that happen, and we’ll be profitable.
4 unit picks
green bay (-6.5) over DETROIT
Strange as it seems, the public seems to be on Detroit in this one. I think the public tends to root against a streak, and they see the sympathetic Lions as a great story - they want them to beat the Packers. That shrinks the line lower than it should.
new england (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
I don’t care if it’s Vince Young or Michael Vick, the Patriots are rolling, and should roll over the Eagles. It’s clear the gamblers want to believe in Philadelphia, as I have no clue why a 4-6 team is only getting a field goal against a 7-3 Patriots team.
buffalo (+9) over NEW YORK JETS
I love it. The Bills struggle, then have an injury - and the idiots jump all over the Jets. Nine points? Have you seen New York play this year? I think Buffalo still has an offense that can play explosively while the Jets have struggled. Give me the points.
3 unit picks
houston (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Unless Matt Leinart is an unmitigated disaster, the Texans should beat the Jaguars handily. Clearly this line says the gamblers think he could be as bad as he was in the past. I think Jacksonville is struggling on defense and should have a tough time stopping the Texans.
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over carolina
It’s easy to give up on the Colts - they’ve definitely been awful this year. But the players aren’t tanking for a draft pick. They’ve been overmatched in the past but should be able to beat the Panthers and the overrated Cam Newton. Newton has thrown 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season - Curtis Painter has a very similar ratio (5 TDs, 7 INT.) I think the Colts get their first win.
minnesota (+9.5) over ATLANTA
Without Adrian Peterson, there’s no way the Vikings can win, right? Wrong. In Minnesota’s two wins this year, Peterson only averaged 4.18 yards per carry. In their losses? 4.8 yards per carry. The public overrates the importance of one player. I’m not saying the Vikings are better without him, but I do think they can hang with the Falcons without him.
2 unit picks
miami (+7) over DALLAS
Miami was never a bad team this season - they just had some awful luck early in the year. Clearly they can play, and they’ll show that in Dallas. I actually think the Cowboys are underrated this season, just not this week.
san francisco (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
Clearly the public needs to see the 49ers pick up a big win before they’ll bet with them. Get on board while you still can, because after they beat down the Ravens, they’ll be a national story. This line should be a pick’em, but I’ll gladly take the points.
arizona (+3) over ST. LOUIS
Anyone want to explain this line to me? Arizona has legitimate wins this season, as well as playmakers on offense. The Rams can’t do anything right, particuarly on offense. I think Arizona’s defensive line can dominate the Rams, and win this one easily. It won’t be pretty, but it will be a win.
Comments