Last week: 7-2 (+15 units)
Overall: 49-35-7 (+42 units)
Rather than pat ourselves on the back, it's simply not enough to win. Well, I take that back. It's ALWAYS enough to win.
But it's never time to be satisfied. One thing I've learned is that things change quickly. We can always win more, even though so far, I'm quite happy with how things have gone.
Keep in mind as the season goes along that the gambling public will shift. They'll give up on certain teams and buy stock in others. That doesn't mean that can't be right - but it does give more of an opportunity to shift the odds in your favor.
And that's all we're looking for - that small edge that will make a wager profitable over a lifetime. The ball can bounce either way for us. But if we're getting three more points per game than we should, we should jump all over that game every single time.
4 unit picks
cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
This game is the perfect storm of lines. The public sees Baltimore coming off an upset loss, while they think the Bengals are ready to come down to Earth. The Bengals will play the Ravens tight - getting a touchdown is crazy.
tampa bay (+14) over GREEN BAY
Green Bay looks great right now, and Tampa has looked awful. But I don't buy it. The Bucs still have a strong offensive line and should be able to hang with the Packers. I'm not calling for an upset, but I absolutely expect a close game.
san diego (+4) over CHICAGO
Remember how I said gamblers can turn on a team? I think they've finally given up on the Chargers - which is the perfect time to get on board. The Bears have played well but still are fundamentally flawed.
3 unit picks
NY GIANTS (-4.5) over philadelphia
I was ready to jump on Philly in this game, until I realized that Vince Young will likely be starting. No thanks.
oakland (-1) over MINNESOTA
I hate that Minnesota had such an awful performance on Monday Night, because it shifted the line a couple of points towards Oakland. No matter, because the Raiders are clearly a superior team and should roll to a win.
tennessee (+6) over ATLANTA
Why does the gambling public refuse to give any credit to the Titans? Or is it that they think the Falcons are good? I'm not sure which it is, but I'll happily take the points in the process.
2 unit picks
MIAMI (-2) over buffalo
It's clear that Buffalo is fading, and I can't imagine the Dolphins will do them any favors this week. Miami is a good team that simply had awful luck at the start of the season. They'll continue to roll.
dallas (-7) over WASHINGTON
I feel like I'm getting the bad side of this line, as Dallas is usually a popular pick. But I can't avoid betting against Washington, who simply are a terrible team. I don't think they'll be able to stop Dallas, and I'm certain that Rex Grossman won't be able to put up a whole lot of points.
jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND
Again, I'm hesitant to bet for or against my team, but the Jaguars are starting to look like a team who can do some damage. Their defense is strong and I can't imagine Cleveland scoring more than 10 points against them. These are two teams clearly going in different directions.
Overall: 49-35-7 (+42 units)
Rather than pat ourselves on the back, it's simply not enough to win. Well, I take that back. It's ALWAYS enough to win.
But it's never time to be satisfied. One thing I've learned is that things change quickly. We can always win more, even though so far, I'm quite happy with how things have gone.
Keep in mind as the season goes along that the gambling public will shift. They'll give up on certain teams and buy stock in others. That doesn't mean that can't be right - but it does give more of an opportunity to shift the odds in your favor.
And that's all we're looking for - that small edge that will make a wager profitable over a lifetime. The ball can bounce either way for us. But if we're getting three more points per game than we should, we should jump all over that game every single time.
4 unit picks
cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
This game is the perfect storm of lines. The public sees Baltimore coming off an upset loss, while they think the Bengals are ready to come down to Earth. The Bengals will play the Ravens tight - getting a touchdown is crazy.
tampa bay (+14) over GREEN BAY
Green Bay looks great right now, and Tampa has looked awful. But I don't buy it. The Bucs still have a strong offensive line and should be able to hang with the Packers. I'm not calling for an upset, but I absolutely expect a close game.
san diego (+4) over CHICAGO
Remember how I said gamblers can turn on a team? I think they've finally given up on the Chargers - which is the perfect time to get on board. The Bears have played well but still are fundamentally flawed.
3 unit picks
NY GIANTS (-4.5) over philadelphia
I was ready to jump on Philly in this game, until I realized that Vince Young will likely be starting. No thanks.
oakland (-1) over MINNESOTA
I hate that Minnesota had such an awful performance on Monday Night, because it shifted the line a couple of points towards Oakland. No matter, because the Raiders are clearly a superior team and should roll to a win.
tennessee (+6) over ATLANTA
Why does the gambling public refuse to give any credit to the Titans? Or is it that they think the Falcons are good? I'm not sure which it is, but I'll happily take the points in the process.
2 unit picks
MIAMI (-2) over buffalo
It's clear that Buffalo is fading, and I can't imagine the Dolphins will do them any favors this week. Miami is a good team that simply had awful luck at the start of the season. They'll continue to roll.
dallas (-7) over WASHINGTON
I feel like I'm getting the bad side of this line, as Dallas is usually a popular pick. But I can't avoid betting against Washington, who simply are a terrible team. I don't think they'll be able to stop Dallas, and I'm certain that Rex Grossman won't be able to put up a whole lot of points.
jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND
Again, I'm hesitant to bet for or against my team, but the Jaguars are starting to look like a team who can do some damage. Their defense is strong and I can't imagine Cleveland scoring more than 10 points against them. These are two teams clearly going in different directions.
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