Gambling Picks, Week 14

Last week: 4-5 (-1 units)
Overall: 62-47-9 (+50 units)

Are we leveling off, or just hitting a skid? I suppose -1 unit being a bad week is a good thing. But I just see so many missed opportunities. And I hate missed chances to make money.

This time of year it's easy to find lots of misperceptions out there. The first is of a team "quitting." That's ridiculous. Professional football players don't quit. Maybe teams will put a load of players on IR, but no players actively stop trying.

There's also the "must win game" - trust me, there are a lot of games like those that are lost.

Again, let's repeat the mantra. Our only goal is to find games where we're getting more points than we should. Anyone can try to pick winners, but if you're consistently getting more than you should, you'll be a winner long-term.

4 unit picks
oakland (+11.5) over GREEN BAY
It's interesting how the public tends to root for and against certain teams. I'm not sure why, but the public wants to see Green Bay get that perfect record. I've said it for a while - Green Bay is good, but they're a flawed team. The Raiders are getting way too many points in what should be a close game.

tampa bay (-1) over JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville's whole team is a mess - three cornerbacks on IR, no wide receivers and a rookie quarterback who can't play. Tampa isn't a great team, but they should win this game easily.

buffalo (+7) over SAN DIEGO
The public is used to the Chargers turning it on at the end of the year. But remember, the past has NOTHING to do with the future. This line is ridiculous and there's no way the Chargers should be giving a touchdown to anyone.

3 unit picks
new england (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
Clearly the Patriots are hitting their stride at the right time. Meanwhile, I don't know if Washington has one thing going for it right now. I smell a blowout.

DENVER (-3) over chicago
I'm not ready to join the Tim Tebow bandwagon, but I know a bargain when I see one. Chicago can't do much of anyone on offense and the Broncos should be able to wear out Chicago's old defense. I can't stand Tebow as a quarterback, but he should get a win here.

ny giants (+3.5) over DALLAS
For some reason the public refuses to believe in the Giants. Too bad for them, lucky for us. They think Dallas is a strong team, and they simply are not. I think the Giants match up well with them. Take the points and run with them.

2 unit picks
kansas city (+10.5) over NY JETS
I like this Chiefs team, particularly on defense. They clearly struggle on offense, but so do the Jets, right? Ten points is a lot in this case.

SEATTLE (-4.5) over st. louis
The Seahawks are hot at the wrong time - when it doesn't matter. Meanwhile, the Rams are as bad a team as there is in the league. This one should be a laugher.

MIAMI (-3) over philadelphia
Even with the return of Michael Vick, the Dolphins should be able to run all over Philadelphia's defense. The combination of Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should be enough to win this one.