Gambling Picks, Week 16

Last week: 6-2-1 (+13 units)
Overall: 70-55-11 (+49 units)

A heck of a bounce back after a real disappointing week 15. But the winners were there, and they were pretty obvious.

And they're still there right now. The public is loving a few teams that have no business getting that kind of love. Reputations are building false lines, and bad superstitions are doing it as well.

Let's ride high into the end of the regular season and cash a big winner.

4 unit picks
chicago (+13.5) over GREEN BAY
The almighty Packers can't possibly lose two in a row, right? Wrong. While I do think they"ll beat the Bears, this line is way out of whack. The Bears have benched Caleb Hanie and should be able to take advantage of Green Bay's weak offensive line. I also think the Packers are smart enough to realize they need to protect Aaron Rodgers from too many hits, and they'll do everything short of mailing this one in.

DALLAS (-1.5) over philadelphia
I love it. I've made a mint betting against the Eagles this season - and they give the public one last shot to make me some serious cash. The Cowboys are simply the better team, and this misconception of a "hot team" gives you all the ammo you need to fire away on this one.

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over miami
The Patriots clearly have hit their stride. That offense looks positively unstoppable, and Miami should struggle to slow them down at all. The Patriots should roll the Dolphins with ease.

3 unit picks
st. louis (+16) over PITTSBURGH
I love it - Pittsburgh looks terrible on a Monday night, and are suddenly giving 16? No thanks. I'll take the Rams with Kellen Clemens. Pittsburgh should probably win this one, but I feel like they're clearly trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time.

oakland (+2.5) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs win a couple games and are suddenly favorites? What'd I miss? The Chiefs aren't nearly as bad as they've looked at points in the season, but they'e not that good either. Meanwhile, Oakland is struggling but still should be able to get it under control. They're still the best team in this division.

arizona (+4.5) over CINCINNATI
No one believes in Arizona - yet somehow, they're in the playoff race. The Cardinals have a dominant defensive line and should be able to attack the fading Bengals. It's hard to imagine the Bengals getting too much respect, but it's absolutely what's happened in this case.

2 unit picks
ny giants (+3) over NY JETS
The Giants are the better team, yet they're getting three on a neutral field? I love it. Eli put up a clunker last week, but so did Mark Sanchez. The Giants are simply better on both sides of the ball and should dominate this one.

jacksonville (+7.5) over TENNESSEE
Jacksonville is coming off a hideous outing against a team that absolutely played to its weakness - pass-protection and pass-defense. This week, they play the Titans who can't pass and who can't rush the passer. I think this is a tight game and the Jags should cover easily.

cleveland (+13.5) over BALTIMORE
The public loves Baltimore and expects the Ravens to roll the Browns in a bounce-back game. I just don't see it. Cleveland can play, particularly now that Colt McCoy is out of the lineup. They'll keep this one close.

Comments

[adam g]

Yo Jason,

You okay man? Your tweets and posts have gone silent. You are worrying me (and I want your picks for week 17--what can I say?). Hope you have eloped and/or are enjoying the New Year in style.

Thanks for all that you post. I love reading your stuff!

[Jason]

Sorry, it's been a tough time. Plus my laptop died on me, and I'm trying to work all my stuff through an ipad, which is a little new to me. The picks are up now, and I'm still going to post playoff picks every week.

Thanks for the note!