Gambling Picks, Divisional Round

Last week: 1-3 (-4 units)
Overall: 80-66-23 (+42 units)

We struggled last week. I felt myself going against the math and with my gut, which is clearly the wrong move. I'll try to put my feelings aside, as I plan to stick with the numbers this week.

Let's not forget that a lot of gamblers bet based on what they want to see happen, not only this week, but in the upcoming weeks of the playoffs. Would you be surprised if you heard Saints fans say they think the Packers are vulnerable to the Giants? Same with the Ravens saying they think the Broncos could give the Patriots a game?

Just remember that the gambling public are absolutely what build these lines, and move on from there. If you're getting an extra three points in a game, that's enough to move on it every time. Give me the 65% winner every time, even if it's going to burn me once every three games.

4 unit picks
SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over new orleans
It's an absolute joke that the 49ers are getting points at home against this New Orleans team. I love the quarterback position, but it proves once again that gamblers underestimate the importance of things like defense and the running game. San Francisco has the firepower on defense to stop the Saints, and I love the 49ers in this game straight up - but I'll gladly get four points at home.

3 unit picks
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over denver
New England's defense has quietly picked up steam as the season has gone on, despite teams passing a ton against them because they were trailing. In other words, they're underrated this year. I've been an unabashed Tebow-hater this season, but I just can't imagine them hanging this week with the Patriots.

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over houston
Houston has hit some nice matchups at the right time this season. But what I can't find is a legitimate reason to pick them on the road against this Ravens team. Baltimore has too much firepower on offense and won't make the silly mistakes Cincinnati made against them.

2 unit picks
new york giants (+7.5) over GREEN BAY
I went back and forth on this one all week - but I don't see a big difference between this game and the one the Giants played with the Packers in week 14. There's always the potential of the Eli Manning blow up game - but I think New York's defense line can dominate this game and possibly pull the upset.