Last week: 5-3-1 (+6 units)
Overall: 79-63-23 (+46 units)
Though there's always room for improvement, I was pretty happy with the regular season. 16 games over .500, and a nice return on investment if you rolled with me this season.
But it's the playoffs, and there's even more opportunity out there. Just remember, the public have major expectations that always shift the line. I want to go 11-0 in the playoff season, but I'm always going to take the side that is on the side of the math.
And that's the only rule that's worth following. Every ridiculous prognosticator in the world has some ridiculous set of rules to justify his picks. "Don't take a rookie quarterback on the road", or "never bet against X coach in a big game." Forget about those things. Go with the math.
4 unit picks
NY GIANTS (-3) over atlanta
A lot of gamblers are afraid of the Giants. They have the ability to win (and lose) against anyone it seems. I disagree, in that I don't think there's any chance they lose this week to Atlanta. They've simply got too much talent on both sides of the ball, and I think the gamblers are waiting for the Falcons to show up in a big game. I think they'll be disappointed this week.
3 unit picks
detroit (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Call me crazy, but I just don't buy into the New Orleans hype. The public thinks they are the team who can challenge the Packers, and that's pushing this line into double digits. Detroit has been an overvalued team this season but should be able to cover this one easily, if not win outright.
pittsburgh (-8.5) over DENVER
I expected this line to continue to jump thanks to the Tebow backlash. But with Pittsburgh's injuries, it's kept it nicely in line. It's tempting to stay away from this one, but I can't help it - I just can't imagine Tim Tebow showing up against a legitimate defense. The only way I see Denver hanging is if Ben Roethlisberger has one of "those games." I'm guessing we'll wait to see that one until next week.
2 unit picks
cincinnati (+3) over HOUSTON
Cincinnati has been an undervalued team the entire season. It's easy to throw out the stat that they were 0-7 against playoff teams. But the success of a team isn't based on who they lose to, it's on their entire body of work. And Houston just isn't a quality team with TJ Yates at quarterback.
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